Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:05:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
12 0x1282…6a48 weather 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$56 (-3%) realized −$67 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$597now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days−$41
14 days−$74
30 days−$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -48.6% -53.5% 50% 0% -16.0%
≤30d 13 -13.4% -21.6% 46% 0% -14.5%
≤90d 13 -13.4% -21.6% 46% 0% -14.5%
all 13 -13.4% -21.6% 46% 0% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 0% -14.5%
10% -29.1% 0% -22.7%
15% -36.0% 0% -30.2%
20% -42.3% 0% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$13 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$597
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage29d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 23? No 97¢ 99¢ $586 $597 +$11 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $512 +$15 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 22 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $112 −$5 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 −$2 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $23 −$9 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $61 −$14 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $20 −$4 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $21 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $27 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $47 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 7? Jun 06 $20 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on May 24? May 24 $100 +$4 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 23? BUY No 97¢ $586 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $143 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $47 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $61 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $157 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $71 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $8 5h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $35 6h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 97¢ $512 8h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 90¢ $55 18h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? SELL No 83¢ $17 10d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 94¢ $20 10d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? SELL No 91¢ $35 10d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 92¢ $15 10d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 91¢ $20 10d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? SELL No 89¢ $19 10d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 94¢ $21 10d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? SELL No 93¢ $16 10d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? SELL No 90¢ $20 10d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 92¢ $16 10d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 92¢ $21 10d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 11? SELL No 80¢ $19 11d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 11? BUY No 88¢ $21 11d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 10? SELL No 61¢ $15 12d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 10? BUY No 95¢ $23 12d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 9? SELL No 73¢ $47 13d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 9? BUY No 93¢ $14 13d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 9? BUY No 94¢ $20 13d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 9? BUY No 93¢ $27 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $596.99 · official $596.99 (match) · 47 history records