Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:37:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x1281…12af world 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate40%19W / 28L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$1
other 21% +$5
crypto 12% $0
politics 7% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 2% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.4% -8.2% 22% 11% -9.5%
≤30d 13 -0.5% -10.0% 31% 8% -9.4%
≤90d 13 -0.5% -10.0% 31% 8% -9.4%
all 47 -4.2% -13.4% 40% 6% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 6% -8.9%
10% -21.7% 4% -17.6%
15% -29.2% 4% -25.6%
20% -36.2% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses19 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage472d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $44 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $5 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $54 +$1 +2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $43 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $78 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $43 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $39 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $39 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 -21%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $35 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $39 $0 -1%
Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? Dec 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 3? Dec 10 $0 $0 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 27 $15 $0 +2%
Will Jumaane Williams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? Jun 02 $5 +$2 +49%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on May 23? May 24 $14 $0 +2%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? May 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 19 $28 $0 -0%
Will X buy TikTok? May 19 $14 $0 -0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will Dan or Simion win the diaspora vote? May 15 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi May 13 $14 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 11 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 10 $4 $0 -2%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 09 $11 $0 +3%
Will Trump impose film tariff by Friday? May 09 $12 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 08 $12 $0 -0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? May 07 $11 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? May 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix? Apr 04 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 03 $14 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $15 $0 +3%
Will Club Brugge or Aston Villa advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 13 $14 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin above $84,000 on March 7? Mar 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 10 $1 $0 +8%
Will Montoya stay with his girlfriend? Mar 07 $13 +$6 +52%
Davidson vs. Loyola Chicago Mar 04 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $44 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $44 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $40 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $40 45h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $43 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $43 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $32 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $8 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $40 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $37 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $38 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $15 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $10 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $8 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $31 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 81¢ $2 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 81¢ $37 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 63¢ $43 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $43 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $31 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $9 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $7 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.00 (match) · 155 history records