Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:13:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
12 0x1281…4286 other 96 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$142 (+18%) realized +$145 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate60%52W / 35L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$86
7 days+$125
14 days+$137
30 days+$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$95
crypto 28% +$21
sports 12% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 +8.8% -1.5% 61% 51% +9.8%
≤30d 87 +16.4% +5.3% 60% 52% +10.3%
≤90d 87 +16.4% +5.3% 60% 52% +10.3%
all 87 +16.4% +5.3% 60% 52% +10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.3% 52% +10.3%
10% -4.7% 38% -0.2%
15% -13.9% 31% -9.9%
20% -22.4% 26% -18.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.4 per $1 lost it wins $2.4
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$146
Realized+$145
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses52 / 35
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)87 / 96
History coverage12d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 66¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-41%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $47 +$60 +128%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$28 +55%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 22 $2 −$2 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Oliver Tarvet vs Alex Bolt Jun 22 $5 +$1 +24%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Alejandro Moro Can Jun 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs David Goffin Jun 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech Jun 22 $5 +$2 +40%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $11 +$4 +36%
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang Jun 22 $5 −$2 -34%
Grass Court Championships (Doubles): Alexandrova/Noskova vs Eikeri/Gle Jun 22 $5 +$1 +24%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $3 +$2 +60%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $13 +$5 +36%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $23 −$1 -5%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $12 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 +$21 +52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $24 +$3 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $7 +$5 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$5 +31%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 +$3 +13%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $2 +$3 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +9%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $24 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $24 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $12 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$1 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $9 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 69¢ $14 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $41 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $18 12h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 12h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 12h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 12h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $45 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $21 14h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Raphael Collignon 73¢ $2 17h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Oliver Tarvet vs Alex Bolt BUY Oliver Tarvet 80¢ $5 18h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Alejandro Moro Can BUY Francisco Comesana 62¢ $5 18h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs David Goffin BUY David Goffin 75¢ $5 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 23h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech BUY Naomi Osaka 71¢ $5 25h
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang BUY Iva Jovic 75¢ $5 25h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 64¢ $5 25h
Grass Court Championships (Doubles): Alexandrova/Noskova vs Eikeri/Gle BUY Alexandrova/Noskova 80¢ $5 25h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 73¢ $13 34h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 34h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 34h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $21 34h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $11 45h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $21 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.45 · official $146.45 (match) · 180 history records