Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:54:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
12 0x127f…8fce crypto 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%74W / 1L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$7
other 0% $0
tech 0% −$2
finance 0% $0
world 0% $0
economics 0% +$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 8 +1.3% -8.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 24 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 75 -0.3% -9.8% 99% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 1% -9.4%
10% -18.4% 1% -18.1%
15% -26.3% 1% -26.0%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.45 per $1 lost it wins $4.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses74 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)75 / 77
History coverage239d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $101 $101 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 5? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On Jun 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 03 $4 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 03 $5 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? Jun 03 $5 $0 +3%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in May? Jun 03 $6 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? Jun 03 $81 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 21? May 22 $82 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? May 08 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 2? May 04 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 20? Apr 26 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 18? Apr 19 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on April 16? Apr 17 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 13? Apr 15 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on April 11? Apr 12 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 8? Apr 10 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $103 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $75-$80 in March? Apr 03 $5 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on April 1? Apr 03 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 29? Mar 30 $94 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $94 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 21? Mar 22 $96 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $94 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on March 17? Mar 18 $96 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 14? Mar 16 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 12? Mar 13 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? Mar 10 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 4? Mar 07 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 1? Mar 03 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 28? Mar 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 26? Feb 27 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 23? Feb 24 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on February 20? Feb 21 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 18? Feb 19 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 1 Feb 17 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 1 Feb 16 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 13? Feb 14 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on February 1 Feb 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on February 9? Feb 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 7? Feb 08 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on February 3? Feb 05 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on February 1? Feb 02 $91 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 31 $5 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 30? Jan 31 $94 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 28? Jan 28 $92 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 26? Jan 26 $92 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102,000 and $104,000 on January Jan 24 $92 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 20? Jan 21 $90 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $101 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $100 15d
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On BUY No 100¢ $3 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $81 27d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $82 29d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in May? BUY No 98¢ $6 39d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? BUY No 97¢ $5 39d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $4 39d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY No 97¢ $5 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $98 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 2? BUY No 100¢ $98 49d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $102 53d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $100 60d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 18? BUY No 100¢ $97 62d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $3 63d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $103 64d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $103 67d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on April 11? BUY No 100¢ $104 69d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $101 72d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $103 75d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on April 1? BUY No 100¢ $99 79d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 29? BUY No 100¢ $94 83d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $94 86d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $99 88d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 21? BUY No 100¢ $96 90d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $94 92d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on March 17? BUY No 100¢ $96 94d
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $75-$80 in March? BUY No 95¢ $5 95d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 14? BUY No 100¢ $99 97d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 12? BUY No 100¢ $98 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.13 · official $104.13 (match) · 152 history records