Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:08:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x127e…a25d crypto 26 markets active 3d ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$31 (-36%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate23%6W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$24
other 12% −$10
world 6% $0
sports 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-44.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -74.3% -76.7% 25% 0% -70.9%
≤30d 26 -38.2% -44.1% 23% 19% -46.5%
≤90d 26 -38.2% -44.1% 23% 19% -46.5%
all 26 -38.2% -44.1% 23% 19% -46.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.1% 19% -46.5%
10% -49.5% 15% -51.6%
15% -54.4% 15% -56.3%
20% -58.8% 15% -60.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -51% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses6 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage5d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $4 $0 +3%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$5 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 09 $7 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$2 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$3 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$4 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$3 +84%
Will it rain in Central Park on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election Jun 09 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $4 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 82 history records