Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:18:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x127d…91e4 other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$30 (-5%) realized −$40 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%7W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$61
14 days−$61
30 days−$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$53
world 10% −$61
sports 5% −$13
crypto 4% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -21.9% -29.3% 44% 44% -19.7%
≤30d 16 -21.9% -29.3% 44% 44% -19.7%
≤90d 16 -21.9% -29.3% 44% 44% -19.7%
all 16 -21.9% -29.3% 44% 44% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.3% 44% -19.7%
10% -36.1% 44% -27.3%
15% -42.3% 31% -34.4%
20% -47.9% 25% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -48% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$29 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses7 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)16 / 21
History coverage144d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 78¢ $50 $67 +$17 (+34%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 70¢ 53¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-24%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $53 −$50 -95%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $106 +$94 +89%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $64 −$61 -95%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -94%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $42 −$40 -95%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $16 +$34 +214%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $23 +$16 +70%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $11 +$7 +64%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $90 +$43 +48%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +35%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $26 +$8 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $53 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 37¢ $26 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 53¢ $26 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $200 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $106 24h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $64 47h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $16 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $26 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 97¢ $38 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $23 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $16 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 58¢ $11 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $11 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $57 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 44¢ $7 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $33 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $26 7d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 19d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 19d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $11 19d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $11 19d
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? BUY 90k 54¢ $9 38d
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 38d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 118d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 143d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.46 · official $105.74 · 55 history records