Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:53:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
12 0x1276…ec87 weather 70 markets active 2h ago coverage 249d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$200 (+10%) realized +$217 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate82%54W / 12L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$66
14 days+$111
30 days+$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$194
crypto 1% −$17
sports 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +20.5% +9.0% 100% 71% +6.4%
≤30d 34 -2.5% -11.8% 76% 41% -0.4%
≤90d 65 +5.1% -4.9% 83% 42% +1.9%
all 66 +3.5% -6.4% 82% 41% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 41% +0.9%
10% -15.3% 24% -8.7%
15% -23.5% 18% -17.6%
20% -31.0% 12% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.35 per $1 lost it wins $3.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

249d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized+$217
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses54 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)66 / 70
History coverage249d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 22? No 73¢ 76¢ $110 $113 +$4 (+3%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 21? No 91¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+10%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 19? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 20? Jun 19 $170 +$14 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 19? Jun 18 $59 +$11 +18%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? Jun 17 $57 +$23 +40%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 +$1 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $24 +$10 +42%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $23 +$1 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $35 +$6 +18%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -99%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 +$4 +18%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $120 +$6 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $13 +$16 +129%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 10? Jun 09 $45 +$5 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 8? Jun 07 $26 +$2 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $47 +$40 +84%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $34 +$8 +25%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $97 +$10 +10%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 5? Jun 04 $3 +$1 +28%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 5? Jun 04 $76 +$4 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 30? May 30 $83 −$4 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 30? May 30 $13 +$1 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 29? May 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 28? May 27 $83 +$5 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 26? May 26 $11 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on May 24? May 24 $6 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 23? May 23 $11 −$11 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 22? May 23 $14 +$3 +23%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $1 +$2 +180%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 22? May 22 $96 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 22? May 22 $5 −$2 -42%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 21? May 22 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 22? May 22 $27 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 21? May 21 $17 +$1 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 18? May 21 $16 +$2 +14%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 18? May 17 $28 +$12 +40%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 17 $1 +$1 +64%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 17? May 17 $56 +$30 +53%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 15? May 15 $4 +$3 +92%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 15? May 15 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 14? May 14 $47 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 13? May 13 $16 +$5 +31%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 13? May 13 $7 $0 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 13? May 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on May 11? May 11 $41 +$4 +9%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 11? May 11 $21 +$3 +12%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on May 11? May 11 $18 $0 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 11? May 10 $26 +$13 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 22? BUY No 73¢ $111 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $215 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 84¢ $9 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 91¢ $187 23h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $9 26h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $109 26h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $50 26h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $17 26h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 92¢ $92 32h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 92¢ $12 32h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 92¢ $12 32h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 19? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 44h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 19? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 45h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 19? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 45h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $70 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 92¢ $55 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 71¢ $12 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $34 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $44 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 85¢ $34 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 82¢ $25 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 94¢ $2 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $9 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 71¢ $36 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 69¢ $21 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 85¢ $3 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 85¢ $30 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.50 · official $113.30 (match) · 214 history records