Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:06:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x1276…eafb world 66 markets active 15h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate26%17W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$5
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$1
politics 25% $0
other 20% $0
sports 12% −$13
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +3.4% -6.4% 20% 20% -6.6%
≤30d 26 -0.4% -9.9% 31% 4% -9.4%
≤90d 65 -2.0% -11.4% 26% 2% -9.5%
all 66 -3.5% -12.7% 26% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 2% -10.0%
10% -21.1% 2% -18.6%
15% -28.7% 0% -26.4%
20% -35.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses17 / 49
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)66 / 66
History coverage484d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 66 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 16 $1 $0 -10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $51 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $3 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $13 +$4 +28%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $38 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $27 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $24 +$2 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $38 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $83 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $78 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $37 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $35 +$1 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $79 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $2 $0 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $138 −$1 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $2 $0 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 28 $37 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $15 −$2 -10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $28 $0 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $72 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $9 −$1 -6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $2 $0 -22%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 20 $36 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $36 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $53 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $42 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 27 $134 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $40 $0 +1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $36 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $59 −$1 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $155 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $86 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $118 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $37 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 17 $1 $0 -15%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $8 $0 +1%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $4 $0 -2%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $74 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in his first 100 days? Apr 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $42 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 13 $8 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $0 14h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $1 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $0 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $0 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $0 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $25 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $9 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $29 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $0 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $3 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $1 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $1 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $2 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $17 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 17¢ $5 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 16¢ $1 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 16¢ $7 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $38 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $38 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 34¢ $12 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 34¢ $14 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 35¢ $27 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 33¢ $25 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 31¢ $11 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 31¢ $13 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $38 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $38 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $26 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $8 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 303 history records