Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:54:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x126f…4ac0 politics 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 380d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate16%14W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$6
other 26% −$4
sports 16% −$2
world 5% −$4
culture 4% −$1
economics 4% $0
crypto 1% −$1
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -7.2% -16.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 9 -13.4% -21.7% 33% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 9 -13.4% -21.7% 33% 0% -10.2%
all 87 -8.5% -17.2% 16% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 0% -9.7%
10% -25.1% 0% -18.4%
15% -32.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -39.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

380d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses14 / 73
Open positions2
Markets (closed)87 / 89
History coverage380d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 26 $2 $0 -21%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $85 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $90 −$1 -1%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $88 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $178 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $85 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 04 $88 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 31 $90 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 21 $93 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 16 $1 $0 -17%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 13 $292 −$1 -0%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 08 $93 +$1 +1%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 28 $92 $0 -0%
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? Jan 26 $92 $0 +0%
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? Jan 21 $87 $0 +0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 21 $1 $0 -19%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 20 $2 $0 -18%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 18 $274 $0 -0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 18 $1 $0 -50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 17? Jan 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $187 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 15 $89 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 14 $279 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 12 $2 $0 -20%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 11 $91 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 08 $99 $0 +0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 07 $92 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 05 $99 −$1 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 02 $1 $0 -62%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 02 $95 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 31 $1 $0 -50%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 31 $93 $0 -0%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 26? Dec 26 $92 $0 +0%
Will José Cardoso win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Dec 24 $1 $0 -50%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 24 $199 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 22 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 19 $1 $0 -31%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 19 $67 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 16 $142 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 15 $97 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 08 $199 −$1 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 06 $96 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 02 $94 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 30 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 28 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 25 $96 $0 +0%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $95 $0 -0%
Will Eminem be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Nov 17 $96 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $84 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $85 39h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 39h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $87 3d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $87 4d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 8d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $88 9d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $88 11d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $88 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $85 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $88 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 25d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $90 25d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $90 30d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $92 125d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $92 129d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 129d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 131d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 132d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 132d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $91 132d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $91 134d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 134d
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $94 137d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 142d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.21 · official $2.21 (match) · 364 history records