Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:55:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x126f…a49d sports 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (81 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$776 (-9%) realized −$532 · open −$244
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate44%27W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day80.6pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$941now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,257
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (81 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -21.4% -28.8% 44% 35% -22.4%
≤30d 62 -21.4% -28.8% 44% 35% -22.4%
≤90d 62 -21.4% -28.8% 44% 35% -22.4%
all 62 -21.4% -28.8% 44% 35% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover80.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.8% 35% -22.4%
10% ← realistic here -35.7% 26% -29.8%
15% -41.9% 19% -36.6%
20% -47.6% 13% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$52 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$941
Realized−$532
Unrealized−$244
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses27 / 35
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions9
Markets (closed)62 / 71
History coverage4d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day80.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Over 86¢ 100¢ $334 $388 +$53 (+16%)
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) IR Iran 87¢ 100¢ $174 $199 +$25 (+15%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 80¢ 100¢ $129 $160 +$31 (+24%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Under 38¢ 82¢ $58 $124 +$66 (+115%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Yes 68¢ 100¢ $18 $27 +$8 (+46%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 18¢ $68 $20 −$48 (-71%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Yes 52¢ 100¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+92%)
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score No 59¢ 57¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score No 56¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Yes 45¢ 44¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score No 52¢ 0¢ $256 $0 −$256 (-100%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) New Zealand 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score No 31¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 46¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 27 $262 −$62 -24%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 27 $3 $0 +14%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $68 −$18 -26%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $36 −$11 -32%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $118 −$101 -85%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $17 −$17 -98%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $150 +$65 +43%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $363 +$81 +22%
Norway vs. France: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $31 +$18 +58%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $9 +$6 +71%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $18 −$4 -21%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $183 +$72 +40%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $19 −$19 -98%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $75 −$74 -99%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $40 −$37 -93%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $206 −$139 -68%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 26 $218 +$16 +8%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $331 +$70 +21%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $207 −$8 -4%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 26 $297 −$231 -78%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $25 +$8 +31%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $22 +$50 +231%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 26 $121 −$20 -16%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $288 +$69 +24%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $10 −$9 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $550 +$28 +5%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $5 +$2 +51%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $169 +$31 +18%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $50 −$49 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $68 +$41 +60%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $61 +$23 +38%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $706 −$18 -2%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $206 +$9 +5%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $42 +$22 +52%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 25 $19 +$1 +7%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $14 +$7 +50%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $245 −$231 -94%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $17 +$11 +66%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $4 −$4 -98%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $7 −$7 -98%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $8 +$13 +158%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $147 −$130 -88%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $11 −$11 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $13 −$12 -99%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $227 −$215 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 17¢ $2 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $10 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 17¢ $2 1h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 83¢ $12 1h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 87¢ $163 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 77¢ $2 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 86¢ $331 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 89¢ $5 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 81¢ $117 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 31¢ $5 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 31¢ $2 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $2 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $54 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $66 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 33¢ $1 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 69¢ $9 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 68¢ $9 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $3 2h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 68¢ $10 2h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 19¢ $2 3h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 97¢ $49 3h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 33¢ $3 3h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 65¢ $10 4h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 40¢ $39 4h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 42¢ $2 4h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $3 4h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 43¢ $43 4h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $1 4h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $1 4h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $11 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $940.97 · official $938.77 (match) · 334 history records