Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:44:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x126f…af4d other 134 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,033 (+1%) realized +$1,033 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate24%32W / 101L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$1,311per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$303now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$12
14 days−$32
30 days−$187
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$164
politics 34% −$71
sports 13% +$1,269
world 4% −$30
economics 3% −$7
culture 2% −$4
crypto 1% +$2
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 29 -7.0% -15.8% 10% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 64 -2.5% -11.8% 11% 5% -8.6%
all 133 +3.7% -6.2% 24% 13% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 13% -9.0%
10% -15.1% 13% -17.7%
15% -23.3% 10% -25.7%
20% -30.9% 6% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,635) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +14% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$9 · ×6.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.13 per $1 lost it wins $2.13
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$303
Realized+$1,033
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses32 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 134
History coverage150d
Avg bet$1,311
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $303 $303 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 29 $1,364 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $4,095 −$5 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 25 $314 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 25 $574 −$1 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 24 $357 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $1,971 −$3 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $484 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $3,744 −$4 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $1,368 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $3,398 −$4 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,053 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $7,070 −$8 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $2,296 −$2 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $336 +$2 +1%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $1,076 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $2,063 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $1,115 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $3,839 −$4 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $843 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,084 −$2 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 06 $72 −$72 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 06 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $2,095 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 02 $358 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 02 $482 +$1 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $444 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $1,958 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $5,149 −$8 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $528 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $3,620 −$3 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $2,340 −$3 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 25 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 25 $65 +$21 +32%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $656 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $849 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 20 $1,214 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 10 $1,433 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $1,456 −$2 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $1,447 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $7,232 −$8 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,076 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,296 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $2,671 −$3 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 05 $2,404 −$3 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $4,350 −$4 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $1,454 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $1,476 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $303 42m
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $312 1h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $312 5h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $339 2d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $340 3d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $313 4d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $314 4d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $574 4d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $574 4d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 100¢ $357 5d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $357 5d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $580 6d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $581 6d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $483 7d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $484 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $669 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $670 9d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $574 9d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $575 10d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $568 11d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $569 11d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $793 11d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $100 11d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $694 11d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,051 12d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,053 13d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,044 13d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,046 13d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $858 14d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $859 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $303.02 · official $303.02 (match) · 490 history records