Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:56:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
12 0x126e…0850 world 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$17 (+0%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$323per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$1
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 36% −$2
world 34% −$5
other 30% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.4% -9.9% 50% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 6 +1.2% -8.4% 50% 0% -8.2%
≤90d 14 -4.4% -13.5% 50% 7% -9.3%
all 14 -4.4% -13.5% 50% 7% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 7% -9.3%
10% -21.8% 7% -18.0%
15% -29.3% 0% -25.9%
20% -36.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$13 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage84d
Avg bet$323
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? Jun 27 $387 −$4 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? Jun 27 $389 +$1 +0%
Will Russia capture Serhiivka by July 31? Jun 18 $226 +$3 +2%
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $228 −$1 -0%
Spread: Rosenborg BK (-1.5) Jun 02 $478 +$40 +8%
Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? May 29 $483 −$7 -2%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs 25 cents (BO3) - Circuit X Base Recife Group May 27 $62 −$62 -100%
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027? May 27 $85 +$23 +26%
Spread: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (-2.5) May 11 $480 +$10 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 09 $477 $0 +0%
Spread: Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (-2.5) Apr 22 $422 +$8 +2%
Will the US strike 13 countries in 2026? Apr 21 $423 $0 -0%
Spread: RCD Mallorca (-2.5) Apr 06 $188 +$2 +1%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2 Apr 04 $200 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? SELL No 97¢ $383 6m
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? BUY No 98¢ $387 1h
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $390 1h
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $389 3h
Will Russia capture Serhiivka by July 31? SELL No 95¢ $229 8d
Will Russia capture Serhiivka by July 31? BUY No 94¢ $226 9d
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $228 9d
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $228 9d
Spread: Rosenborg BK (-1.5) BUY FK Bodø/Glimt 92¢ $478 29d
Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $252 29d
Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $224 29d
Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $483 29d
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs 25 cents (BO3) - Circuit X Base Recife Group BUY 25 cents $32 30d
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs 25 cents (BO3) - Circuit X Base Recife Group BUY 25 cents $30 30d
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $54 31d
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $54 31d
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027? BUY Yes $43 31d
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027? BUY Yes $42 31d
Spread: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (-2.5) BUY Sevilla FC 98¢ $480 48d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $477 48d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $477 48d
Spread: Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (-2.5) BUY Shanghai Haigang FC 98¢ $422 66d
Will the US strike 13 countries in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $422 66d
Will the US strike 13 countries in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $423 67d
Spread: RCD Mallorca (-2.5) BUY Real Madrid CF 99¢ $188 83d
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2 SELL No 97¢ $5 84d
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2 SELL No 97¢ $44 84d
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2 SELL No 97¢ $49 84d
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2 SELL No 97¢ $54 84d
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2 SELL No 97¢ $49 84d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 35 history records