Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:02:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
12 0x126a…a073 crypto 886 markets active 1h ago coverage 131d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 130d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$543 (+0%) realized +$543 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate78%707W / 194L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day19.9pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 131d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$956
other 6% +$450
sports 5% −$1,238
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -55.0% -59.3% 32% 16% -32.0%
≤30d 70 -23.4% -30.7% 53% 29% -28.1%
≤90d 423 -4.5% -13.6% 74% 31% -15.0%
all 901 -4.0% -13.2% 78% 25% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 25% -11.5%
10% -21.5% 14% -20.0%
15% -29.1% 7% -27.7%
20% -36.0% 4% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$56 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$543
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses707 / 194
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)901 / 886
History coverage131d ⚠
Avg bet$155
Trades / day19.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 901 Trades
no open positions (128 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 26? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 8AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Zama FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Zama FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 17 $224 −$224 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 21, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Zama FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 17 $16 −$21 -138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on January 2? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 9AM ET Jun 17 $400 −$400 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $198 −$198 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $285 +$23 +8%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $443 +$250 +56%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $227 −$182 -80%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $95 +$6 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $121 +$36 +30%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $168 +$44 +26%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $22 −$14 -63%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $594 +$12 +2%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $54 +$2 +3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $73 +$126 +174%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $374 +$35 +9%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 10 $4 +$1 +23%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 06 $4 +$1 +27%
Set 1 Winner: Shnaider vs Chwalinska Jun 05 $2 +$3 +129%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 05 $113 +$3 +3%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $362 +$85 +24%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $63 −$1 -1%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $2,035 −$2,032 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 03 $311 +$8 +3%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 01 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC end in a draw? Jun 01 $39 +$3 +7%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev May 31 $6 $0 +5%
Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $20 +$1 +7%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $221 +$41 +18%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks May 31 $251 +$30 +12%
Roland Garros WTA: Sorana Cirstea vs Xiyu Wang May 31 $342 −$15 -4%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $231 +$18 +8%
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $301 +$21 +7%
Roland Garros WTA: Diane Parry vs Amanda Anisimova May 30 $40 −$13 -31%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $31 −$25 -82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 97¢ $98 59m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 95¢ $96 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $86 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $4 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 18¢ $45 37h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $63 37h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $137 37h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $123 37h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $117 37h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 87¢ $44 38h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 88¢ $89 38h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 88¢ $89 38h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 88¢ $4 38h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $48 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $48 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 80¢ $41 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 77¢ $39 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 74¢ $38 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 92¢ $47 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $40 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $38 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $38 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $4 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records