Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:39:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x1269…9c5c crypto 809 markets active 7d ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$437 (-9%) realized −$437 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate64%518W / 291L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$100
30 days−$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$289
weather 9% −$218
sports 1% −$26
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -49.2% -54.1% 50% 0% -26.1%
≤30d 468 -3.6% -12.8% 70% 69% -14.9%
≤90d 751 -6.9% -15.7% 67% 64% -17.8%
all 809 -9.7% -18.3% 64% 61% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 61% -18.9%
10% -26.1% 33% -26.6%
15% -33.2% 14% -33.7%
20% -39.8% 8% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$437
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses518 / 291
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)809 / 809
History coverage149d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 809 Trades
no open positions (208 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? Jun 11 $12 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $15 −$15 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 9? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 +$1 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $11 −$10 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 9? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 9? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $23 −$19 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 −$3 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $12 −$11 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 7? Jun 08 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 7? Jun 08 $1 +$5 +507%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $6 −$5 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 8? Jun 07 $6 −$6 -96%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 +$2 +164%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 6? Jun 06 $2 +$10 +486%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $1 +$4 +357%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 6? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 6? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 5? Jun 05 $0 $0 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 04 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 04 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 04 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 04 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 04 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 04 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 04 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 04 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 04 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 04 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 04 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? BUY No 84¢ $4 7d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? BUY No 84¢ $4 7d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 10? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 10? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 10? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 10? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 8d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 8d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 9? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 9? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 9? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 8d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 9? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 9? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 8d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 9? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 8d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 9? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 8d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 9? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 8d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 9? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 8d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 8? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 9? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 8d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 9? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 8d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 9? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 8d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 9? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 9? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2409 history records