Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:26:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
12 0x1266…f871 sports 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$68 (+13%) realized +$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%8W / 8L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +5.9% -4.2% 50% 50% +2.2%
≤30d 16 +5.9% -4.2% 50% 50% +2.2%
≤90d 16 +5.9% -4.2% 50% 50% +2.2%
all 16 +5.9% -4.2% 50% 50% +2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 50% +2.2%
10% -13.3% 44% -7.6%
15% -21.7% 44% -16.5%
20% -29.4% 44% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$25 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses8 / 8
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)16 / 19
History coverage7d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 54¢ 54¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 43¢ 42¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Texas Rangers 47¢ 46¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $23 +$3 +11%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $21 +$36 +172%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $97 +$80 +83%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $17 +$30 +172%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $17 +$26 +152%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $21 +$28 +129%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $25 +$27 +105%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $45 +$32 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 47¢ $6 2m
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 43¢ $8 27m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 54¢ $26 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL San Francisco Giants 46¢ $25 24h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 49¢ $28 42h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 40¢ $23 43h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 36¢ $21 44h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 55¢ $26 2d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 54¢ $36 2d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 54¢ $60 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 42¢ $21 3d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 48¢ $27 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $17 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 50¢ $35 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 39¢ $17 5d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 37¢ $16 6d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 43¢ $21 6d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 44¢ $30 6d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Chicago Cubs 58¢ $45 6d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 42¢ $18 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 48¢ $25 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.52 · official $39.52 (match) · 36 history records