Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T12:19:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

12
0x1264…31e5
other · 415 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2,369 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,455 · open +$86
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,513
Realized−$2,455
Unrealized+$86
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses238 / 163
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Open positions14
Markets (closed)401 / 415
History coverage220d
Avg bet$230
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%
Chart Positions 14 History 401 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$17
14 days−$2
30 days−$183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 67¢ 94¢ $201 $280 +$80 (+40%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 51¢ 50¢ $204 $202 −$2 (-1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 85¢ 98¢ $170 $196 +$26 (+15%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 84¢ 80¢ $168 $159 −$9 (-5%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 82¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 79¢ 97¢ $79 $97 +$17 (+22%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 74¢ 94¢ $74 $94 +$20 (+26%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $90 $94 +$4 (+4%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? No 66¢ 60¢ $93 $85 −$8 (-9%)
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? No 78¢ 78¢ $78 $77 −$0 (-1%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 79¢ 58¢ $87 $64 −$23 (-26%)
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30? No 93¢ 90¢ $49 $48 −$1 (-3%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? No 29¢ 17¢ $29 $17 −$12 (-41%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$2 (-30%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026? No 63¢ 0¢ $218 $0 −$218 (-100%)
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? No 39¢ 0¢ $117 $0 −$117 (-100%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May? No 63¢ 0¢ $262 $0 −$262 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 27? No 70¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on May 14? No 63¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 78°F or higher on May 21? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on May 29? No 65¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 76°F or higher on May 22? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $47 −$9 -19%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $36 −$6 -17%
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by Augus Jun 06 $10 −$2 -17%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? Jun 01 $44 +$15 +34%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ma May 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 27 $117 −$117 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 27? May 27 $70 −$70 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $300 +$44 +15%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 26 $265 +$29 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 26 $140 −$8 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $174 +$26 +15%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 76°F or higher on May May 20 $25 −$24 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 78°F or higher on May May 20 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ma May 20 $74 +$18 +25%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ma May 17 $103 +$16 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on May 15? May 17 $55 +$6 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C or higher on May 15? May 17 $91 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on May 14? May 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May? May 13 $266 −$262 -98%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026? Apr 30 $218 −$218 -100%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? Apr 30 $70 −$43 -61%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Apr 30 $200 −$9 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $951 −$373 -39%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $366 −$366 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $612 +$138 +23%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30? Apr 08 $100 −$9 -9%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Apr 08 $545 +$76 +14%
P2P FDV above $10M one day after launch? Apr 02 $383 +$66 +17%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 01 $87 +$9 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? Apr 01 $83 +$4 +5%
Over $35M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 01 $371 +$96 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 3 to March 1 Mar 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026? Mar 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 29 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from February 27 to Mar Mar 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 25 $92 −$76 -83%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 25 $1 $0 +22%
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 25 $200 +$54 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? Mar 21 $367 +$34 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 21 $1 $0 +6%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from March 13 to March Mar 21 $1 $0 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Mar 18 $1 $0 +44%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 18 $20 +$23 +113%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 17 $252 −$9 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 15 $10 +$7 +69%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 15 $100 +$12 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 8? Mar 09 $1 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026? Mar 09 $10 +$4 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 81% −$1,672
world 10% +$644
crypto 7% −$902
politics 1% −$225
weather 1% −$155
tech 0% −$122
finance 0% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $204 58m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $196 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $200 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 84¢ $168 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 38¢ $38 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $30 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 2h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $101 19h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? BUY No 29¢ $29 2d
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $0 3d
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $10 3d
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $2 3d
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $37 3d
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $14 3d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $87 3d
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $90 3d
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $49 3d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $44 3d
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by Augus SELL No 19¢ $9 6d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $50 8d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 11d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $47 11d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $36 11d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ma BUY No 65¢ $102 14d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $21 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -17.7% -25.6% 0% 0% -25.8%
≤30d 18 -34.5% -40.8% 44% 39% -20.4%
≤90d 48 -25.3% -32.4% 50% 35% -24.4%
all 401 -12.8% -21.1% 59% 25% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 25% -12.8%
10% -28.6% 12% -21.2%
15% -35.5% 6% -28.8%
20% -41.9% 4% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,513.07 · official $1,513.07 (match) · 1752 history records