Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:43:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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12 0x1263…b826 crypto 1581 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 66d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,050 (-4%) realized −$4,040 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate65%1029W / 551L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day46.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 66d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$6,562
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 214 -9.0% -17.6% 71% 44% -15.2%
≤30d 844 -8.7% -17.4% 69% 52% -13.6%
≤90d 1580 -7.9% -16.6% 65% 53% -15.1%
all 1580 -7.9% -16.6% 65% 53% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 53% -15.1%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 38% -23.2%
15% -31.9% 26% -30.6%
20% -38.6% 18% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$65 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,040
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses1029 / 551
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1580 / 1581
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$69
Trades / day46.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1580 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 277 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$15 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$6 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $132 +$25 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$19 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$7 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$10 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$23 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $62 +$49 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $62 +$23 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $75 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$18 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$49 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $54 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $50 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $53 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $50 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $56 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $41 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $20 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $25 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $20 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $119 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $37 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 3500 history records