Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:39:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
12 0x1262…21b7 sports 111 markets active 2h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,193 (-20%) realized −$1,193 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%52W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$394
7 days−$394
14 days−$394
30 days−$614
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$619
other 22% −$395
crypto 3% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +13.9% +3.1% 44% 44% -29.6%
≤30d 63 +15.6% +4.6% 49% 49% -25.3%
≤90d 87 +3.8% -6.0% 46% 46% -26.8%
all 110 +2.5% -7.3% 47% 47% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 47% -25.4%
10% -16.1% 46% -32.5%
15% -24.2% 39% -39.0%
20% -31.7% 29% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$51 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,193
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses52 / 58
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)110 / 111
History coverage156d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 110 Trades
no open positions (41 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $100 −$97 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $81 +$57 +70%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND Jun 26 $150 +$314 +209%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $202 −$200 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $101 −$70 -69%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 +$51 +101%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 +$81 +158%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $994 −$480 -48%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 03 $3 −$3 -99%
Matteo Berrettini vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $40 −$38 -95%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $5 +$37 +712%
Heilbronn: Max Schoenhaus vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 03 $20 −$20 -99%
Makarska: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Laura Samson Jun 03 $30 −$30 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $20 −$20 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $101 −$100 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $50 +$17 +34%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $51 −$50 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 02 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Colombia vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? Jun 02 $21 −$20 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $101 −$66 -65%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $20 +$32 +158%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $30 +$35 +114%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $61 −$45 -74%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima May 31 $20 +$7 +34%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 31 $51 +$130 +256%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana May 30 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $56 −$43 -76%
Roland Garros WTA: Diane Parry vs Amanda Anisimova May 30 $20 +$85 +414%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Camila Osorio May 30 $20 +$17 +86%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 30 $31 −$30 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Maja Chwalinska May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 29 $41 −$40 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev May 29 $47 −$33 -69%
Roland Garros WTA: Peyton Stearns vs Belinda Bencic May 29 $22 +$8 +38%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 29 $22 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 29 $31 +$18 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 29 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 29 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 29 $37 +$55 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 29 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Kosice: Andrej Martin vs Martin Krumich May 29 $27 +$13 +46%
Roland Garros WTA: Solana Sierra vs Sorana Cirstea May 29 $23 +$7 +32%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar May 29 $20 −$17 -84%
Thiago Agustin Tirante vs. Pablo Carreno Busta: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 29 $20 +$11 +56%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $5 +$9 +172%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $67 −$66 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Yulia Starodubtseva May 29 $30 −$30 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score AND New Zealand vs. Belgi BUY 56¢ $25 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $81 16h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND BUY 32¢ $150 26h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 17¢ $32 26h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score BUY No 66¢ $51 38h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 39h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $51 39h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 38¢ $51 39h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $513 39h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $994 13d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Marta Kostyuk 55¢ $3 23d
Matteo Berrettini vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5 SELL Over 3.5 3¢ $2 23d
Matteo Berrettini vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 65¢ $40 23d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 12¢ $5 24d
Heilbronn: Max Schoenhaus vs Alejandro Moro Canas BUY Max Schoenhaus 54¢ $20 24d
Makarska: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Laura Samson BUY Laura Samson 55¢ $30 24d
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Anna Kalinskaya 59¢ $20 24d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 37¢ $51 24d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Matteo Berrettini 63¢ $51 24d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 74¢ $50 25d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 66¢ $51 25d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 50¢ $51 25d
Will Colombia vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 25d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi SELL Matteo Arnaldi 20¢ $35 25d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Matteo Arnaldi 55¢ $101 25d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca SELL Joao Fonseca 100¢ $53 26d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev SELL Jakub Mensik 100¢ $65 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 233 history records