Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:31:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.0
score
12 0x1262…2fc9 sports 914 markets active 0h ago coverage 64d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,169 (+15%) realized +$4,169 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate73%663W / 251L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day36.4pace
Fees−$271est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$934
7 days−$188
14 days−$188
30 days−$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$3,046
other 47% +$195
world 0% +$3
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 +23.5% +11.8% 81% 64% -11.4%
≤30d 145 +29.7% +17.4% 79% 63% -10.4%
≤90d 914 +30.4% +18.0% 73% 61% +0.9%
all 914 +30.4% +18.0% 73% 61% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +18.0% 61% +0.9%
10% ← realistic here +6.7% 48% -8.7%
15% -3.6% 35% -17.5%
20% -13.1% 24% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late +27% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$17 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$4,169
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses663 / 251
Est. fees paid−$271
Open positions0
Markets (closed)914 / 914
History coverage64d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day36.4
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 914 Trades
no open positions (42 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $100 +$26 +26%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $84 +$10 +11%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $100 +$19 +19%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $300 +$30 +10%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +9%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $308 −$299 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $301 −$299 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$13 +124%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +6%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $300 +$32 +11%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $490 +$45 +9%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $109 +$27 +25%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $134 −$28 -21%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $300 +$29 +10%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Norway to score first vs. Iraq? Jun 17 $14 +$2 +13%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 +$17 +165%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $302 +$98 +32%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $87 +$8 +10%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $300 +$29 +10%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $13 +$27 +216%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $302 +$97 +32%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $302 +$133 +44%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $14 +$1 +10%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $305 +$151 +49%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $302 +$67 +22%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $203 +$13 +6%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $907 −$308 -34%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $605 −$287 -48%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $336 −$304 -90%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $15 +$1 +10%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $300 −$299 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $301 −$69 -23%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $49 +$6 +12%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $49 +$8 +16%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $16 +$28 +177%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 15 $32 +$38 +116%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $49 +$5 +11%
Egypt to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 15 $43 +$7 +16%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $50 +$13 +26%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $32 +$3 +10%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $50 +$31 +62%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 +$42 +82%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$15 +46%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $50 +$8 +16%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $60 +$8 +14%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $50 +$41 +83%
Will Cuiabá EC vs. Vila Nova FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$7 +219%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $49 +$11 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 92¢ $82 23m
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 92¢ $11 23m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 99¢ $118 24m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 83¢ $100 24m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 79¢ $100 24m
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 82¢ $84 24m
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? SELL No 100¢ $330 58m
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? BUY No 90¢ $300 59m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? SELL No 96¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY No 88¢ $9 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 82¢ $301 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 0¢ $308 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? SELL No 97¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 91¢ $9 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? SELL No 99¢ $282 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? SELL No 98¢ $50 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? SELL No 100¢ $220 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 86¢ $190 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 89¢ $300 4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 53¢ $39 5h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 54¢ $8 5h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 53¢ $3 5h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 54¢ $27 5h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 55¢ $59 5h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $109 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 36¢ $106 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? SELL No 94¢ $316 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? SELL No 99¢ $329 5h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 30¢ $7 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 90¢ $300 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.08 · official $22.52 · 2463 history records