Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:45:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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12 0x125a…e1d2 crypto 637 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (79 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$585 (-5%) realized −$750 · open +$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate61%386W / 247L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day79.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$176now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$341
7 days−$26
14 days−$312
30 days−$750
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$662
sports 3% −$95
other 1% +$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (79 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 -1.2% -10.6% 66% 63% -10.6%
≤30d 633 -10.5% -19.0% 61% 43% -15.5%
≤90d 633 -10.5% -19.0% 61% 43% -15.5%
all 633 -10.5% -19.0% 61% 43% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover79.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.0% 43% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -26.8% 37% -23.6%
15% -33.9% 29% -30.9%
20% -40.3% 23% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$13 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$176
Realized−$750
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses386 / 247
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)633 / 637
History coverage16d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day79.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 633 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 52¢ 94¢ $65 $117 +$52 (+80%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Derrick Lewis 21¢ 20¢ $39 $38 −$1 (-2%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Under 62¢ 66¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Michael Chandler 20¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $31 +$10 +32%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $8 +$8 +101%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $31 +$10 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $72 −$72 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $122 −$122 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $72 −$44 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $36 +$28 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 12 $36 +$21 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $72 +$47 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $36 −$34 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $35 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $35 +$8 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $36 +$26 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $36 +$35 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $41 +$19 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $68 +$22 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $33 +$24 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $42 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $36 +$26 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $34 +$19 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $35 +$12 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $29 +$8 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 11 $25 +$22 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $34 +$31 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $51 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $41 +$14 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $41 +$39 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $76 +$13 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $41 +$11 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $23 18m
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 62¢ $20 20m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $17 22m
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 100¢ $41 23m
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Under 100¢ $16 24m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $9 52m
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 75¢ $31 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 49¢ $8 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 76¢ $31 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $66 1h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $122 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $29 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $36 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $36 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $36 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $36 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $36 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $36 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $36 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $36 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $36 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $36 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $35 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $36 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $35 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $36 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $36 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176.06 · official $176.06 (match) · 2004 history records