Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:06:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

12
0x1258…6a43
sports · 42 markets active 0h ago
3.0score
+$78 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$78 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized+$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses19 / 22
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage200d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 1 History 41 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$104
7 days+$28
14 days+$28
30 days+$124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Aurora Gaming 57¢ 67¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+18%)
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 paiN 14¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Getafe CF vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 2.5 Under 68¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 MIBR 51¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $91 +$48 +53%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $35 −$28 -78%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $84 +$25 +30%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $59 +$26 +44%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $30 +$8 +28%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $37 +$24 +65%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $52 −$51 -99%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $52 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $82 −$55 -67%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $51 +$33 +64%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $62 +$7 +12%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $38 −$29 -77%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $74 +$16 +21%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 01 $75 +$25 +33%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $38 −$12 -30%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 27 $174 +$18 +11%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 26 $6 +$26 +427%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5 May 25 $23 +$27 +119%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 18 $60 +$12 +19%
Villarreal CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 2.5 May 14 $16 +$14 +86%
Getafe CF vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 2.5 May 13 $14 −$14 -99%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? May 05 $28 −$1 -5%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 18 $122 −$4 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? Mar 17 $235 +$96 +41%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 16 $35 −$13 -37%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $13 −$6 -43%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Mar 16 $248 −$238 -96%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $31 +$19 +61%
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $10 −$4 -44%
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 14 $35 −$17 -48%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 12 $25 −$22 -90%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner Mar 12 $5 −$2 -47%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Mar 10 $19 +$12 +63%
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? Dec 30 $374 +$349 +93%
Lighter Airdrop on December 31? Dec 30 $24 −$24 -99%
No airdrop in 2025? Dec 30 $34 −$33 -98%
Lighter Airdrop on December 30? Dec 30 $30 −$29 -97%
Dota 2: OG vs Natus Vincere (BO1) Dec 29 $110 −$110 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 43% −$89
other 39% +$57
crypto 10% +$106
world 5% −$4
culture 2% +$9
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $139 1m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 57¢ $2 19m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 78¢ $40 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 57¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 2¢ $8 5h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 10¢ $19 5h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 10¢ $15 5h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 10¢ $2 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 78¢ $31 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 78¢ $8 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Monte 17¢ $8 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 20¢ $10 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 68¢ $34 25h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 83¢ $39 26h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 64¢ $30 26h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Vitality 77¢ $56 28h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Vitality 77¢ $1 28h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 57¢ $59 29h
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 60¢ $37 4d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY MIBR 51¢ $52 4d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 53¢ $52 4d
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner SELL FlyQuest 8¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner BUY FlyQuest 32¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner SELL FlyQuest 29¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner SELL FlyQuest 17¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner BUY FlyQuest 14¢ $9 5d
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner SELL FlyQuest 11¢ $11 5d
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner BUY FlyQuest 52¢ $52 5d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL TYLOO 100¢ $83 5d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY TYLOO 60¢ $51 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -4.2% -13.3% 67% 58% -5.6%
≤30d 21 +101.5% +82.3% 71% 67% -0.4%
≤90d 33 +50.2% +35.9% 52% 48% -12.9%
all 41 +31.3% +18.8% 46% 44% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.8% 44% -7.1%
10% +7.4% 34% -16.0%
15% -3.0% 27% -24.1%
20% -12.5% 22% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.35 · official $2.35 (match) · 179 history records