Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:59:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x1257…a9ac crypto 191 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$250 (-7%) realized −$242 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate32%61W / 127L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$22
14 days−$22
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% −$372
world 26% +$81
other 8% −$67
sports 3% +$42
finance 3% −$60
politics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-29.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -1.0% -10.4% 48% 43% -17.6%
≤30d 21 -1.0% -10.4% 48% 43% -17.6%
≤90d 37 -15.4% -23.4% 35% 32% -25.3%
all 188 -22.5% -29.9% 32% 28% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.9% 28% -19.6%
10% -36.6% 24% -27.3%
15% -42.7% 19% -34.3%
20% -48.3% 18% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$10 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized−$242
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses61 / 127
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)188 / 191
History coverage120d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-15%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 67 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $32 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$6 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$16 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$10 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -12%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 15 $52 −$20 -38%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 01 $78 +$29 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 01 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 01 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 01 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 01 $10 $0 -3%
Will WTI Crude Oil settle at $80–$90 on April 8? Apr 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Apr 08 $250 −$74 -30%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 08 $300 −$79 -26%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 07 $65 +$54 +83%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 06 $50 −$13 -25%
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Apr 06 $50 −$2 -5%
Crude Oil all time high by March 31? Mar 25 $15 −$6 -40%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? Mar 24 $16 +$2 +12%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Mar 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 23 $11 −$4 -40%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Mar 22 $10 −$1 -12%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Mar 17 $20 −$4 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 17 $10 −$1 -7%
Military action against Iran ends on March 28, 2026? Mar 17 $5 −$2 -38%
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by March 31? Mar 17 $13 −$4 -34%
Military action against Iran ends on March 26, 2026? Mar 17 $5 −$2 -40%
Military action against Iran ends on March 27, 2026? Mar 17 $5 −$2 -34%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 16 $50 −$11 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Mar 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 06 $25 −$7 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 05 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 05 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Mar 05 $5 +$4 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $34 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $20 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $11 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $7 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $11 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.58 · official $81.62 (match) · 500 history records