Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:08:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
12 0x1257…c0ce crypto 123 markets active 6d ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (133 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$363 (+20%) realized +$363 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate55%68W / 55L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day133.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% +$223
sports 21% +$76
politics 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (133 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +15.4% +4.4% 56% 53% +22.4%
≤30d 123 +4.3% -5.6% 55% 50% +6.8%
≤90d 123 +4.3% -5.6% 55% 50% +6.8%
all 123 +4.3% -5.6% 55% 50% +6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover133.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.6% 50% +6.8%
10% ← realistic here -14.6% 41% -3.4%
15% -22.9% 32% -12.7%
20% -30.4% 25% -21.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$7 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$363
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses68 / 55
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)123 / 123
History coverage2d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day133.3
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 123 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +38%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 202.5 Jun 11 $101 +$14 +14%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $17 +$13 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$4 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$9 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$12 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$6 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $11 +$20 +191%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$8 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$19 +357%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$10 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$33 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
ITF Hurghada: Prathyusha Rachapudi vs Sandra Samir Jun 10 $15 −$11 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 10 $41 +$17 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 10 $42 +$134 +316%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $36 −$25 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$6 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 10 $31 −$2 -6%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $41 +$11 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +102%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $20 −$13 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$5 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 11? SELL Up 32¢ $7 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 202.5 SELL Over 93¢ $0 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 202.5 SELL Over 93¢ $114 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 28¢ $3 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 42¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 21¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 202.5 BUY Over 81¢ $101 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? SELL No 97¢ $30 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? BUY No 47¢ $1 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? BUY No 52¢ $16 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 299 history records