Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:09:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
12 0x1254…c808 crypto 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL −$140 (-2%) realized −$190 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate62%26W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$204now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$123
7 days+$146
14 days+$146
30 days+$215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$339
other 13% +$35
tech 9% +$50
sports 3% +$112
finance 1% −$38
world 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +94.5% +75.9% 53% 33% +15.2%
≤30d 17 +85.7% +68.0% 59% 41% +12.8%
≤90d 26 +54.2% +39.5% 58% 46% -13.0%
all 42 +33.6% +20.9% 62% 33% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.9% 33% -12.8%
10% +9.3% 17% -21.1%
15% -1.2% 10% -28.7%
20% -10.9% 10% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9.044763466941072% → late 76.2533049489018% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$40 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$204
Realized−$190
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses26 / 16
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)42 / 49
History coverage103d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $101 $99 −$2 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 40¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-15%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 85¢ 90¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+5%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? No 73¢ 64¢ $22 $19 −$3 (-13%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 22¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $115 +$4 +4%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $124 +$8 +7%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $126 +$41 +33%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $7 +$128 +1728%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $16 $0 +3%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $9 −$2 -24%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +96%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +157%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $49 +$7 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22? May 21 $117 +$20 +17%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 21 $221 +$49 +22%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 05 $83 +$12 +15%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in April? Apr 26 $64 +$8 +13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 12 $425 −$19 -5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 08 $7 +$9 +122%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Apr 02 $6 +$1 +15%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Apr 01 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Apr 01 $52 −$47 -89%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 30 $854 −$250 -29%
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Mar 24 $20 +$2 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 16? Mar 15 $275 −$5 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 16? Mar 13 $140 +$9 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 13 $436 +$48 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 12? Mar 11 $130 +$13 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 10? Mar 10 $103 +$28 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 9? Mar 06 $214 −$11 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 8? Mar 06 $112 −$8 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 7? Mar 06 $214 +$9 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 6? Mar 06 $279 +$12 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 6? Mar 06 $341 −$210 -62%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 05 $124 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 6? Mar 05 $146 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 5? Mar 05 $112 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 5? Mar 05 $101 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 5? Mar 05 $76 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 5? Mar 05 $113 +$11 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 49m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $119 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $64 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 10h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 10h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $22 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $51 10h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 76¢ $112 19h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 19h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 20h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $132 20h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $100 21h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $15 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 23h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $135 24h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 93¢ $7 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 85¢ $7 25h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 25h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 5¢ $9 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 82¢ $9 26h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 28h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 37h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $8 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $9 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $9 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $204.11 · official $204.11 (match) · 135 history records