Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:19:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
12 0x1249…eb1e sports 784 markets active 0h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$82 (+3%) realized +$78 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%378W / 403L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$9
14 days−$4
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$91
other 3% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -12.1% -20.4% 44% 44% -27.7%
≤30d 104 -0.2% -9.7% 48% 48% -8.7%
≤90d 599 -2.0% -11.4% 46% 46% -10.1%
all 781 +1.2% -8.5% 48% 48% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 48% -7.7%
10% -17.2% 48% -16.5%
15% -25.2% 47% -24.6%
20% -32.5% 46% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$78
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses378 / 403
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions3
Markets (closed)781 / 784
History coverage112d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 781 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 50¢ 100¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+100%)
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 47¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $2 +$1 +67%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $2 +$2 +76%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $2 +$2 +97%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $2 +$2 +97%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $2 +$3 +152%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 +$2 +97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $2 +$2 +105%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $2 +$2 +97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $2 +$2 +97%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 08 $2 +$4 +172%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $2 +$2 +109%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $2 +$3 +152%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $2 +$2 +93%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $2 +$2 +101%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $4 +$4 +107%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX (BO5) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Clos Jun 05 $2 +$2 +82%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $2 +$1 +65%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Execration (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia C Jun 05 $2 +$3 +129%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs GLYPH (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Clos Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs BBL Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 04 $8 −$8 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs NRG (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Q May 31 $2 +$2 +89%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $3 +$4 +129%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $5 +$7 +130%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 30 $2 +$2 +114%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $2 +$2 +97%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $2 +$4 +206%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $2 +$2 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 25m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $2 5h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2 11h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $3 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 25h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 59¢ $2 26h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 100¢ $4 26h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $6 26h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 56¢ $2 29h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $2 31h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $3 37h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 2d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 50¢ $2 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 2d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $2 2d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY XLG Gaming 39¢ $2 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $4 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3 4d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 28¢ $3 6d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $4 6d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 60¢ $2 6d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $2 7d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 8d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY FUT Esports 45¢ $2 8d
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta BUY NRG 57¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.30 · official $12.30 (match) · 1889 history records