Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:23:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

12
0x1247…9ce9
crypto · 448 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$5,902 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5,156 · open +$46
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$23,857
Realized+$5,156
Unrealized+$46
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses399 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions10
Markets (closed)517 / 448
History coverage84d
Avg bet$2,172
Trades / day36.3
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 10 History 517 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8,172
7 days−$6,446
14 days−$6,549
30 days−$5,206
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $17,918 $17,909 −$9 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? No 100¢ 100¢ $997 $997 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 12? No 99¢ 99¢ $990 $992 +$2 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? No 98¢ 98¢ $984 $984 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? No 98¢ 98¢ $977 $976 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 12? No 98¢ 99¢ $634 $638 +$4 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 12? No 96¢ 98¢ $513 $525 +$11 (+2%)
Nothing Ever Happens: June Nothing 87¢ 90¢ $458 $474 +$16 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 12? No 83¢ 90¢ $249 $272 +$22 (+9%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $90 $90 +$0 (+1%)
UFC 322: Kopylov vs. Rodrigues (Middleweight, Prelims) Kopylov 37¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 660k+ BTC by December 31? No 81¢ 0¢ $405 $0 −$405 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 13? Yes 85¢ 0¢ $85 $0 −$85 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on April 13? No 94¢ 0¢ $470 $0 −$470 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on April 10? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $114 $0 −$114 (-100%)
Bitcoin outperforms S&P 500 in December? No 49¢ 0¢ $1,130 $0 −$1,130 (-100%)
UFC 325: Finney vs. Malkoun (Middleweight, Prelims) Finney 35¢ 0¢ $210 $0 −$210 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 28? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on April 15? No 64¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Bitcoin ETF Flows on November 5? Positive 16¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 3? No 98¢ 0¢ $196 $0 −$196 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $112,000 October 13-19? No 55¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Curtis Blaydes 72¢ 0¢ $198 $0 −$198 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $108,000 October 13-19? No 87¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 December 1-7? No 81¢ 0¢ $81 $0 −$81 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC 322: Kopylov vs. Rodrigues (Middleweight, Prelims) Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 660k+ BTC by December 31? Jun 12 $405 −$405 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 13? Jun 12 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin outperforms S&P 500 in December? Jun 12 $1,130 −$1,130 -100%
UFC 325: Finney vs. Malkoun (Middleweight, Prelims) Jun 12 $210 −$210 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 28? Jun 12 $12 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin ETF Flows on November 5? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $112,000 October 13-19? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $108,000 October 13-19? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 December 1-7? Jun 12 $81 −$81 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $104,000 October 13-19? Jun 12 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Bernie say "Billionaire Friends" during CNN town hall on October Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 10? Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase November 11-17? Jun 12 $366 −$366 -100%
UFC 322: Mariscal vs. Sabatini (Featherweight, Early Prelims) Jun 12 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 29-January 4? Jun 12 $2,075 −$2,075 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in November? Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $94,000 November 10-16? Jun 12 $193 −$193 -100%
Almeida vs. Aswell Jr. Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 1-7? Jun 12 $132 −$132 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $110,000 October 13-19? Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Luque vs. Álvarez Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will SK Slavia Praha win on 2026-01-28? Jun 12 $131 −$126 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 4PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $116K August 4–10? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 January 26-1? Jun 12 $129 −$129 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-10-22? Jun 12 $34 −$34 -100%
UFC 322: McConico vs. Susurkaev (Middleweight, Early Prelims) Jun 12 $47 −$47 -100%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Jun 12 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Bernie say "Health Care" 5+ times during CNN town hall on October Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 January 12-18? Jun 12 $102 −$102 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on October Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum ETF Flows on October 20? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Bernie say "Trump" 12+ times during CNN town hall on October 15? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8? Jun 12 $1,692 −$1,692 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $96,000 November 10-16? Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Filho vs. Carpenter Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first? Jun 12 $117 −$84 -72%
Will Bernie say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 27? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $97 −$97 -100%
Rays vs. Guardians Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 4AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 6? Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 10? Jun 12 $33 −$34 -103%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 1? Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 January 12-18? Jun 12 $600 −$600 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 December 8-14? Jun 12 $220 −$220 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on November Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bernie say "Zohran" or "Mamdani" during CNN town hall on October Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 55% +$10,542
crypto 45% +$4,015
sports 0% +$352
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $253 0m
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? BUY No 98¢ $977 40m
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $725 40m
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $135 54m
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $43 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $997 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? BUY No 98¢ $984 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $130 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $33 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $20 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $571 2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $198 3h
Nothing Ever Happens: June BUY Nothing 87¢ $435 3h
Nothing Ever Happens: June BUY Nothing 88¢ $16 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $56 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $38 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $115 4h
Nothing Ever Happens: June SELL Nothing 92¢ $264 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $173 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $97 4h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $37 4h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $12 4h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $22 4h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $33 5h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $7 5h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $60 5h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $16 5h
Nothing Ever Happens: June SELL Nothing 91¢ $151 5h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $20 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 12? BUY No 83¢ $249 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 141 -52.3% -56.8% 43% 8% -13.4%
≤30d 253 -30.9% -37.5% 63% 9% -10.3%
≤90d 517 -12.0% -20.4% 77% 11% -8.9%
all 517 -12.0% -20.4% 77% 11% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover36.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.4% 11% -8.9%
10% -28.0% 6% -17.6%
15% ← realistic here -35.0% 4% -25.6%
20% -41.3% 3% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23,856.59 · official $23,856.59 (match) · 3500 history records