Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:22:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x1247…59ee crypto 869 markets active 0h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$300 (-8%) realized −$301 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%422W / 446L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$283
7 days−$180
14 days−$165
30 days−$152
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$395
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 249 -24.4% -31.6% 42% 42% -32.6%
≤30d 461 -11.2% -19.7% 49% 49% -20.2%
≤90d 868 -9.7% -18.3% 49% 48% -19.3%
all 868 -9.7% -18.3% 49% 48% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 48% -19.3%
10% -26.1% 48% -27.0%
15% -33.3% 48% -34.1%
20% -39.8% 48% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$301
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses422 / 446
Open positions1
Markets (closed)868 / 869
History coverage84d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 868 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET Up 54¢ 68¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 143 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +68%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +70%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +73%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 11PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 2PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 8AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 5PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 11AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 5PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 3AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 11AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 6AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 1PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 12AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 11AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 3PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 22m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.38 · official $3.38 (match) · 1645 history records