Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:48:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
12 0x1247…d5d9 crypto 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$117 (+4%) realized +$117 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate100%34W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day19.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$130
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +5.1% -4.9% 100% 3% -5.4%
≤30d 34 +5.1% -4.9% 100% 3% -5.4%
≤90d 34 +5.1% -4.9% 100% 3% -5.4%
all 34 +5.1% -4.9% 100% 3% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 3% -5.4%
10% -14.0% 0% -14.4%
15% -22.3% 0% -22.7%
20% -29.9% 0% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$117
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses34 / 0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage3d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 22 $52 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 22 $34 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 22 $81 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 22 $115 +$12 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 22 $45 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 22 $103 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 22 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $66 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 22 $16 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 22 $49 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 22 $33 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 22 $64 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 22 $24 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 22 $28 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 22 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 22 $64 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 22 $62 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $123 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 21 $191 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 21 $125 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 21 $200 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 21 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $65 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 20 $67 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 20 $12 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $183 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 20 $131 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 20 $200 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $124 +$12 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $52 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $81 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $115 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $45 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $96 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $30 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $14 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $52 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $49 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $16 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $49 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $33 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $64 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $28 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $31 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $20 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $123 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $62 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $29 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $64 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $18 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $6 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $191 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $125 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $7 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $200 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 86 history records