Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:38:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x1241…081b crypto 99 markets active 2h ago coverage 524d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$74 (-5%) realized −$65 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate44%41W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days−$2
14 days−$4
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
culture 30% +$70
crypto 22% +$14
other 17% −$12
world 13% −$124
finance 7% +$19
sports 5% −$12
weather 2% −$32
politics 2% −$18
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -29.1% -35.8% 29% 29% -10.8%
≤30d 52 -31.5% -38.0% 38% 27% -15.2%
≤90d 52 -31.5% -38.0% 38% 27% -15.2%
all 93 -19.1% -26.8% 44% 30% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.8% 30% -14.4%
10% -33.8% 18% -22.6%
15% -40.2% 15% -30.0%
20% -46.1% 11% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

524d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$65
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses41 / 52
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)93 / 99
History coverage524d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 70¢ 74¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+6%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-40%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m Jun 22 $96 +$18 +19%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 19 $23 −$14 -61%
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -25%
Will Senegal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $10 −$3 -33%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $10 −$2 -19%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 15 $13 +$8 +57%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 15 $1 $0 -46%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -45%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $20 +$6 +28%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $15 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 09 $15 $0 +2%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $15 +$6 +40%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $11 −$6 -54%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater t Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $3 −$2 -75%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 44m and 48m? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 08 $11 +$6 +59%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 07 $88 +$10 +12%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 52m? Jun 06 $15 −$5 -34%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $16 +$22 +142%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $5 −$3 -63%
Victor Wembanyama Total 3-Pointers (incl. OT): O/U 1.5 Jun 04 $10 +$4 +43%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 02 $21 +$22 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 02 $21 −$11 -52%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-J Jun 01 $96 −$96 -100%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 01 $50 +$7 +13%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m? Jun 01 $8 −$2 -27%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? May 31 $12 −$5 -40%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 1? May 31 $26 −$25 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 1? May 31 $7 −$7 -96%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m? May 31 $5 −$3 -53%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m? May 31 $99 +$41 +42%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m May 31 $10 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 31 $5 +$6 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 67m and 73m? May 31 $2 −$2 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $25 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m BUY Yes 3¢ $1 17h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m SELL Yes 97¢ $114 17h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 87¢ $62 27h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 74¢ $34 47h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY Yes 59¢ $10 2d
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $12 3d
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 3d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 3d
Will Senegal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 3d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $8 3d
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? SELL Yes 27¢ $9 3d
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY Yes 36¢ $13 5d
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 SELL Yes 96¢ $21 7d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 17¢ $2 8d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY Yes 2¢ $1 9d
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 35¢ $11 9d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 BUY Yes 74¢ $8 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 9d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 BUY Yes 47¢ $5 9d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 7¢ $2 9d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 6¢ $3 9d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 10d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 7¢ $3 10d
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $26 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.03 · official $27.03 (match) · 276 history records