Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:18:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x123e…ba58 world 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 455d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate44%14W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% −$6
other 12% $0
politics 5% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.2% -10.6% 44% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 19 -0.2% -9.7% 32% 5% -10.1%
≤90d 19 -0.2% -9.7% 32% 5% -10.1%
all 32 +0.3% -9.3% 44% 3% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 3% -10.1%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.7%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

455d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage455d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $73 −$4 -5%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $24 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $55 +$3 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $65 −$3 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $92 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $7 −$1 -8%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $26 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $36 −$1 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $16 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $49 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $123 −$2 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $16 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $52 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $72 $0 +0%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $1 $0 +6%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Jun 27 $8 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Apr 28 $12 $0 +1%
Will Susie Wiles be out as White House Chief of Staff in Trump's first Apr 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 19 $9 $0 -3%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in his first 100 days? Apr 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will John-Ion Banu-Muscel advance to the Romanian Presidential Electio Apr 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 12 $9 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $11 2h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $34 2h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 39¢ $49 4h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $24 18h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $24 20h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $16 26h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 26h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $17 29h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $46 40h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $45 40h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $38 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $38 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 22¢ $20 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $16 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $24 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $23 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $20 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $42 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $46 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $46 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 108 history records