Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:59:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x123d…42f3 crypto 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$32 (-14%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate49%25W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$34
14 days−$34
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -39.5% -45.3% 25% 17% -28.9%
≤30d 12 -39.5% -45.3% 25% 17% -28.9%
≤90d 51 -18.8% -26.6% 49% 45% -28.0%
all 51 -18.8% -26.6% 49% 45% -28.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.6% 45% -28.0%
10% -33.6% 43% -34.9%
15% -40.0% 37% -41.2%
20% -45.9% 20% -46.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -62% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses25 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage64d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $33 −$10 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$8 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$5 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$13 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$1 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 15 $0 +$1 +172%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Apr 19 $2 +$1 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Apr 19 $2 +$2 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Apr 19 $2 +$1 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Apr 19 $2 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Apr 19 $2 +$1 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Apr 19 $2 +$1 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Apr 19 $2 +$2 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Apr 19 $2 +$1 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Apr 19 $2 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Apr 18 $1 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Apr 18 $1 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Apr 18 $1 +$1 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Apr 18 $1 +$1 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Apr 18 $1 +$1 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Apr 18 $1 +$1 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Apr 18 $1 +$1 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $0 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $0 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $0 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $0 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $0 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $0 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 53m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.00 · official $5.00 (match) · 317 history records