Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:17:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
12 0x123d…ce06 politics 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+0%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate7%7W / 96L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$272per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$12
politics 41% −$15
crypto 5% −$2
tech 5% −$1
sports 5% +$50
world 1% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 82 -1.3% -10.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 103 +2.1% -7.7% 7% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 6% -9.5%
10% -16.5% 6% -18.1%
15% -24.6% 5% -26.0%
20% -32.0% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$1 · ×15.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses7 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)103 / 105
History coverage122d
Avg bet$272
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 23 $34 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $39 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $245 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $42 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $28 $0 -0%
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $30 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $459 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $297 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $878 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $251 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $186 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $193 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 25 $269 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $754 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $479 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $207 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $967 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $545 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $533 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $204 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $246 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $274 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $232 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $278 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $236 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $223 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $266 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $237 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 07 $676 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $278 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $197 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $229 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $257 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $220 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $266 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $284 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $755 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $266 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $267 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $192 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 22 $276 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $229 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $251 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 19 $494 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $483 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $32 3d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $34 3d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 6d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $39 7d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $39 7d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 7d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 8d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $45 8d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $45 12d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $37 12d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $37 12d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $42 15d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $42 15d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $28 15d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $28 16d
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 16d
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 16d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 16d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 19d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $42 19d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $42 20d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $42 27d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $42 28d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $251 28d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $251 30d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $219 31d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $219 32d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $186 32d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $186 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.96 · official $67.96 (match) · 319 history records