Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:40:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x123a…2424 world 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$360 (-11%) realized −$297 · open −$63
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1,708now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days−$303
14 days−$303
30 days−$303
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$24
world 36% −$55
sports 12% −$254
politics 11% −$2
tech 2% −$8
finance 2% −$23
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-36.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -34.3% -40.6% 35% 24% -34.4%
≤30d 18 -30.0% -36.7% 39% 28% -34.4%
≤90d 18 -30.0% -36.7% 39% 28% -34.4%
all 18 -30.0% -36.7% 39% 28% -34.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.7% 28% -34.4%
10% -42.7% 6% -40.6%
15% -48.3% 6% -46.4%
20% -53.3% 0% -51.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$31 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$1,708
Realized−$297
Unrealized−$63
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions20
Markets (closed)18 / 38
History coverage8d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? No 92¢ 90¢ $754 $741 −$12 (-2%)
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03? Yes 87¢ 98¢ $150 $170 +$19 (+13%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $144 $145 +$1 (+1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 70¢ 70¢ $138 $138 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? No 54¢ 74¢ $47 $64 +$17 (+37%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 89¢ 88¢ $59 $58 −$1 (-1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 35¢ 26¢ $69 $52 −$17 (-24%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? No 48¢ 55¢ $34 $40 +$5 (+16%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 76¢ 86¢ $35 $39 +$5 (+13%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 72¢ 51¢ $48 $34 −$14 (-29%)
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? No 63¢ 62¢ $32 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 81¢ 45¢ $51 $28 −$23 (-44%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 58¢ 60¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+4%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? No 42¢ 97¢ $10 $23 +$13 (+129%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 96¢ 92¢ $22 $22 −$1 (-4%)
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Yes 41¢ 47¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+15%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 32¢ 18¢ $23 $13 −$10 (-44%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? No 88¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 32¢ $4 $7 +$4 (+101%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 32¢ 49¢ $5 $7 +$3 (+53%)
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03? No 14¢ 2¢ $24 $3 −$21 (-87%)
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? Yes 31¢ 10¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-68%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? Yes 35¢ 8¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Jun 18 $121 +$25 +20%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $202 $0 +0%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $18 −$1 -7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $15 +$2 +16%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 16 $24 −$3 -11%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? Jun 16 $61 −$23 -37%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $21 +$1 +5%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $202 −$5 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $151 −$2 -1%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Jun 14 $15 +$3 +22%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 14 $44 −$1 -3%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 13 $236 −$236 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $68 +$9 +13%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $39 1h
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $39 1h
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $39 1h
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $39 1h
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $39 1h
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $39 1h
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $39 1h
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $39 1h
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $39 1h
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $39 1h
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $39 1h
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $39 1h
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $39 1h
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $39 1h
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $39 1h
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $39 1h
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $39 1h
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $39 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 48¢ $34 1h
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $39 1h
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY No 63¢ $32 12h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 80¢ $8 12h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 81¢ $59 12h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 41¢ $13 29h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY Yes 83¢ $121 35h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $7 36h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $6 36h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $2 36h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $13 36h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $11 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,708.23 · official $1,707.93 (match) · 129 history records