Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:42:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x1239…4e1b crypto 288 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$82 (+4%) realized +$76 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%114W / 173L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days−$21
14 days−$13
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% +$87
other 13% −$25
world 2% −$1
sports 1% −$14
politics 0% −$4
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -29.7% -36.4% 35% 29% -13.8%
≤30d 50 -22.8% -30.2% 38% 34% -4.7%
≤90d 84 -18.7% -26.4% 37% 32% -7.3%
all 287 -11.0% -19.5% 40% 37% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 37% -7.8%
10% -27.2% 33% -16.6%
15% -34.2% 29% -24.7%
20% -40.7% 25% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized+$76
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses114 / 173
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)287 / 288
History coverage110d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 287 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Up 62¢ 69¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 123 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $41 +$18 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $61 +$32 +52%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 16 $77 +$2 +3%
Epstein client list released by June 30? Jun 16 $22 −$15 -70%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 15 $7 −$2 -25%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -17%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $54 −$53 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 11 $21 −$14 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2PM ET Jun 11 $62 +$37 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1PM ET Jun 11 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET Jun 11 $41 +$13 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7AM ET Jun 10 $55 +$41 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $25 −$3 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $42 +$16 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $31 +$12 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 08 $18 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 08 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 07 $41 +$24 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 07 $38 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 07 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 05 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 04 $1 +$3 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 04 $3 +$3 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 04 $3 +$4 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 04 $1 +$2 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 04 $2 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Donald Trump announce Ron DeSantis as the next United States Atto Jun 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate after the M May 28 $71 +$63 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $41 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 64¢ $61 32h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 32h
Epstein client list released by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 32h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3d
Epstein client list released by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $7 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? SELL Down 20¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $62 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $41 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 53¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 35¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $24 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $31 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $23 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 7d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 9? BUY Down 70¢ $11 8d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 9? BUY Down 71¢ $31 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.69 · official $55.70 (match) · 763 history records