Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:31:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
12 0x1238…09f7 sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$2 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$82
other 33% −$30
crypto 8% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +3.0% -6.8% 55% 55% -7.9%
≤30d 11 +3.0% -6.8% 55% 55% -7.9%
≤90d 11 +3.0% -6.8% 55% 55% -7.9%
all 11 +3.0% -6.8% 55% 55% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 55% -7.9%
10% -15.7% 55% -16.7%
15% -23.9% 55% -24.8%
20% -31.3% 55% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$29 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$162
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions8
Markets (closed)11 / 19
History coverage3d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 46¢ 46¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $28 $28 −$1 (-2%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $27 $26 −$1 (-3%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 51¢ 52¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $12 +$11 +95%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $12 +$12 +103%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $17 +$14 +81%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $18 +$19 +103%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $24 +$15 +63%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $22 −$20 -95%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $41 −$39 -95%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ Jun 16 $11 −$11 -95%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $93 +$81 +88%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 −$28 -95%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 −$48 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $40 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $18 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $29 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $30 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $11 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $12 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $18 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $16 1h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Estar Backs 14¢ $5 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $17 11h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 47¢ $18 11h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $12 11h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Estar Backs 14¢ $17 11h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Estar Backs 24¢ $41 12h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ BUY Estar Backs 13¢ $11 12h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $12 13h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $24 13h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $174 13h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $30 14h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $93 17h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $93 17h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $50 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $119 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $162.29 · official $162.29 (match) · 31 history records