Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:43:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x1237…06af other 609 markets active 2h ago coverage 351d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 350d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$241 (-0%) realized −$81 · open −$160
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate55%314W / 254L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$251per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$548est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$2,472now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 351d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$2,750
politics 25% −$440
culture 16% +$84
sports 16% +$33
world 12% +$1,311
tech 3% −$2,073
economics 2% −$107
crypto 1% +$139
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 -8.3% -17.0% 49% 27% -7.2%
≤30d 117 -8.7% -17.4% 50% 25% -7.7%
≤90d 253 -5.4% -14.4% 42% 14% -9.5%
all 568 -0.9% -10.4% 55% 13% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 13% -11.9%
10% -18.9% 8% -20.3%
15% -26.8% 5% -28.0%
20% -34.0% 4% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$40 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

351d coverage
Net worth$2,472
Realized−$81
Unrealized−$160
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses314 / 254
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$548
Open positions41
Markets (closed)568 / 609
History coverage351d ⚠
Avg bet$251
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 41 History 568 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $527 $524 −$2 (-0%)
Will Alexander Vindman be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Florida? Yes 88¢ 95¢ $364 $397 +$33 (+9%)
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? Yes 90¢ 82¢ $333 $305 −$28 (-8%)
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? No 90¢ 81¢ $333 $302 −$31 (-9%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $222 $218 −$4 (-2%)
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? No 81¢ 77¢ $222 $211 −$11 (-5%)
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026? No 87¢ 86¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 92¢ $59 $61 +$2 (+3%)
Yoon out of custody before 2027? No 93¢ 84¢ $47 $42 −$5 (-10%)
Will Belgium be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? No 70¢ 63¢ $40 $36 −$4 (-10%)
Will Letitia James be arrested before 2027? Yes 56¢ 26¢ $56 $26 −$30 (-54%)
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? No 84¢ 87¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+4%)
Will the Democrats win the Idaho Senate race in 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $24 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 25¢ $7 $24 +$17 (+243%)
Will Lionel Messi's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 39¢ $35 $22 −$13 (-37%)
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? No 84¢ 98¢ $18 $20 +$3 (+16%)
Will 3+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 19¢ 15¢ $22 $17 −$5 (-21%)
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? Yes 34¢ 27¢ $21 $17 −$4 (-21%)
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 28¢ 14¢ $32 $17 −$15 (-48%)
Will Japan be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-5%)
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 24¢ 38¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+56%)
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 33¢ 38¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 51¢ 28¢ $21 $12 −$10 (-45%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? No 81¢ 76¢ $9 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria finish second in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 27 $43 $0 +0%
Will Iran be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 27 $24 +$21 +89%
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 27 $71 +$16 +23%
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? Jun 27 $92 +$2 +3%
Will Wizkid perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Jun 27 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Norway be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 27 $108 −$7 -7%
Will Norway be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 27 $8 +$2 +22%
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 27 $97 +$3 +3%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 27 $131 +$10 +7%
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 27 $67 +$4 +6%
Will Saudi Arabia finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 27 $38 +$2 +6%
Will France be the highest-scoring team in Group I during the Group St Jun 27 $11 −$5 -42%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $170 −$28 -16%
World Cup: Any Team to Score 10+ Goals in the Group Stage? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2 Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Iraq finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Japan be the highest-scoring team in Group F during the Group Sta Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will New Zealand be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 27 $194 −$194 -100%
Will Senegal be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 27 $40 +$20 +49%
Will Uruguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 27 $7 +$2 +27%
Will Norway be the highest-scoring team in Group I during the Group St Jun 26 $6 +$3 +41%
Will France go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 26 $54 +$10 +19%
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $17 +$1 +4%
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $64 +$2 +3%
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 26 $79 +$230 +290%
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? Jun 25 $734 +$5 +1%
Will Uzbekistan be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 25 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Panama be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 25 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Marquinhos score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $12 −$1 -7%
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 25 $44 −$2 -4%
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 25 $26 −$7 -26%
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $41 +$5 +11%
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 25 $108 $0 +0%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 25 $118 +$69 +59%
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 25 $121 −$2 -2%
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? Jun 25 $1 $0 -12%
Will Switzerland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 24 $2 $0 +16%
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 24 $207 −$5 -2%
Will Switzerland finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G Jun 24 $84 +$22 +27%
Will South Africa be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 24 $27 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Rüdiger score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $111 +$2 +2%
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Jun 24 $6 +$1 +9%
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $46 +$5 +11%
Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $16 $0 -1%
Will Ariana Grande perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime s Jun 23 $55 −$1 -1%
Will J Balvin perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Jun 23 $14 $0 -0%
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Jun 23 $57 +$2 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 39¢ $5 1h
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 39¢ $13 1h
Will Algeria finish second in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group SELL No 74¢ $43 1h
Will Iran be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 63¢ $45 1h
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 92¢ $46 1h
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? SELL No 80¢ $46 1h
Will Wizkid perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? SELL No 91¢ $51 1h
Will Norway be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 66¢ $54 1h
Will Norway be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 1h
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 15¢ $11 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 80¢ $39 1h
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 60¢ $71 1h
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI SELL No 92¢ $45 1h
Will Algeria finish second in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY No 73¢ $43 6h
Will Wizkid perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? BUY No 92¢ $52 7h
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? BUY No 81¢ $47 8h
Will Spain win the World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 10h
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 13¢ $10 31h
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 70¢ $32 31h
Will Japan be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 31h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 55¢ $102 32h
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 56¢ $67 32h
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $28 32h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 56¢ $131 32h
Will Japan be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $16 32h
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $32 32h
Will France go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 78¢ $46 32h
Will Iran be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $24 33h
Will Sweden be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 21¢ $4 33h
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 82¢ $18 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,472.47 · official $2,472.04 (match) · 3500 history records