Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:08:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
12 0x1236…7d21 other 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$954 (+45%) realized +$901 · open +$53
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate37%40W / 69L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$208now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days−$1
14 days+$357
30 days+$932
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$960
other 31% +$122
sports 14% −$40
finance 5% −$27
tech 0% −$4
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +4.2% -5.7% 36% 32% -6.4%
≤30d 63 +38.6% +25.4% 35% 29% +57.7%
≤90d 90 +20.9% +9.4% 34% 30% +42.3%
all 109 +19.0% +7.7% 37% 30% +37.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.7% 30% +37.4%
10% -2.6% 25% +24.2%
15% -12.0% 20% +12.2%
20% -20.7% 17% +1.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +56% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +40% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$8 · ×4.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.84 per $1 lost it wins $2.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$208
Realized+$901
Unrealized+$53
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses40 / 69
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions10
Markets (closed)109 / 119
History coverage169d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Over 64¢ 100¢ $65 $101 +$36 (+56%)
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals Yes 21¢ 100¢ $6 $30 +$24 (+376%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $26 $30 +$4 (+16%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $24 $22 −$2 (-9%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $11 $13 +$1 (+10%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes $6 $5 −$1 (-22%)
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Yes 19¢ 14¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-29%)
Will Ibrahima Konaté score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $4 +$1 (+29%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes $8 $1 −$7 (-93%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $69 +$32 +46%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $4 −$3 -97%
Anthony Valencia: 2+ goals Jun 20 $6 −$2 -29%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 +$30 +146%
Enner Valencia: 3+ goals Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $38 −$38 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $25 +$41 +165%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $9 +$3 +32%
Brahim Díaz: 1+ shots Jun 20 $5 +$1 +20%
Ismael Saibari: 2+ shots Jun 20 $20 $0 +2%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals Jun 20 $7 −$2 -23%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals Jun 20 $8 −$8 -94%
Brahim Díaz: 2+ shots Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Brahim Díaz: 3+ shots Jun 19 $15 −$13 -89%
Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots Jun 19 $9 +$3 +31%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots Jun 19 $115 −$13 -11%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 17 $6 +$44 +733%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $4 +$6 +139%
Rayan Cherki: 2+ shots Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $47 −$46 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $32 −$30 -94%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $34 +$15 +44%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $16 −$16 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 11 $24 −$15 -64%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $22 −$13 -61%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 10? Jun 10 $6 −$2 -31%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $17 −$16 -98%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $26 +$94 +360%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $285 +$358 +126%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $12 +$7 +59%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $13 −$13 -100%
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? May 31 $1 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Senegal? May 31 $0 $0 -3%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 3 Arsenal FC? May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $2 +$22 +900%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $80 +$12 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $6 1h
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $6 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $65 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $4 15h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $69 16h
Anthony Valencia: 2+ goals SELL Yes 10¢ $1 18h
Anthony Valencia: 2+ goals SELL Yes 10¢ $1 18h
Anthony Valencia: 2+ goals SELL Yes 10¢ $2 18h
Enner Valencia: 3+ goals BUY Yes $3 18h
Anthony Valencia: 2+ goals BUY Yes $1 18h
Anthony Valencia: 2+ goals BUY Yes $1 18h
Anthony Valencia: 2+ goals BUY Yes $1 18h
Anthony Valencia: 2+ goals BUY Yes $1 18h
Anthony Valencia: 2+ goals BUY Yes $1 19h
Anthony Valencia: 2+ goals BUY Yes $1 19h
Anthony Valencia: 2+ goals BUY Yes $1 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $21 19h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $38 22h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $66 22h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 12¢ $12 23h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $0 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $4 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $0 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $4 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $25 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $5 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $0 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $0 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $1 27h
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals SELL Yes $0 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $208.06 · official $208.06 (match) · 494 history records