Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:02:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x1236…0142 sports 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$0 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%13W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$38
other 20% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -3.0% -12.3% 57% 57% -6.1%
≤30d 23 -3.0% -12.3% 57% 57% -6.1%
≤90d 23 -3.0% -12.3% 57% 57% -6.1%
all 23 -3.0% -12.3% 57% 57% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 57% -6.1%
10% -20.7% 57% -15.1%
15% -28.3% 35% -23.3%
20% -35.3% 30% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$15 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses13 / 10
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions9
Markets (closed)23 / 32
History coverage6d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 32¢ $24 $32 +$8 (+31%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 66¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $25 +$23 +93%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 −$3 -27%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $25 +$21 +84%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $25 +$7 +29%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $25 +$15 +59%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 −$9 -90%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $20 +$10 +49%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 +$6 +62%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $25 +$28 +113%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $25 −$3 -11%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $25 +$8 +34%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $10 +$7 +69%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $25 +$7 +27%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 17 $25 +$19 +77%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $25 +$8 +34%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $25 +$6 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $48 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $25 13h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 13h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5 SELL Over 26¢ $7 31h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 95¢ $46 34h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 99¢ $32 34h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $25 36h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $10 36h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $25 38h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 76¢ $25 38h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $40 2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 60¢ $30 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $16 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 39¢ $20 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 61¢ $10 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 70¢ $53 2d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $25 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 32¢ $25 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 41¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 62¢ $22 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 68¢ $25 3d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $5 3d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.11 · official $97.11 (match) · 63 history records