Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:11:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x1234…9bd1 sports 528 markets active 2h ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,264 (-10%) realized −$1,254 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%146W / 365L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$21
14 days+$185
30 days+$143
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$454
sports 34% −$547
crypto 2% −$14
politics 1% −$100
culture 0% −$20
world 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +1.9% -7.8% 37% 37% -0.6%
≤30d 40 +18.5% +7.2% 42% 42% +14.1%
≤90d 160 -14.2% -22.4% 30% 30% -8.0%
all 511 -9.3% -17.9% 29% 28% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 28% -17.5%
10% -25.8% 27% -25.4%
15% -32.9% 26% -32.6%
20% -39.5% 24% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$17 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$1,254
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses146 / 365
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)511 / 528
History coverage252d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 511 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 53¢ 42¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-22%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 200 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $25 −$25 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $11 −$10 -94%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score AND Japan vs. Sweden: Both Te Jun 26 $15 +$61 +406%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 +$13 +250%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $5 +$2 +46%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $3 +$1 +28%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 25 $60 +$7 +12%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $3 $0 -1%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $10 +$24 +238%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $10 +$16 +158%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $30 +$18 +60%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $20 +$28 +140%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 +$9 +93%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Swe Jun 20 $10 +$17 +168%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $71 −$34 -47%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $15 +$32 +206%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: Bo Jun 17 $10 +$35 +342%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 15 $15 +$19 +124%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 15 $26 +$61 +238%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $17 +$55 +315%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $41 −$40 -98%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? May 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Freiburg win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 20 $13 −$13 -97%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? May 19 $5 +$6 +109%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) May 19 $5 +$8 +158%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 19 $4 +$13 +325%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list May 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 53¢ $26 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score AND Will Uzbekistan win on BUY $5 20h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $25 20h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $5 20h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 44h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $11 44h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 44¢ $7 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 6.5 SELL Over $2 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 20¢ $2 2d
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Tunisia vs. Netherl BUY $5 3d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 6.5 BUY Over $3 3d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 29¢ $5 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25 BUY $5 3d
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score AND Japan vs. Sweden: Both Te BUY 19¢ $15 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes $3 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND South Africa vs. Korea BUY 11¢ $5 4d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Scotland vs. Brazil: B BUY 12¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 4d
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 4d
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score AND Panama vs. Croatia: Both Te BUY 21¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes $3 5d
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $5 5d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score AND Will Portugal win on BUY 15¢ $7 5d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $10 5d
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 35¢ $5 5d
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score AND Will France win on 2026-06-22 BUY 10¢ $4 5d
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.21 · official $25.21 (match) · 1279 history records