Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:33:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x1233…444a other 487 markets active 2h ago coverage 187d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$887 (-1%) realized −$969 · open +$82
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate78%378W / 107L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$298per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$177now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$167
7 days−$283
14 days−$527
30 days−$520
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$17
tech 7% +$8
crypto 7% +$3
sports 6% −$278
culture 2% +$1
weather 1% +$1
politics 1% −$598
world 0% +$24
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -27.5% -34.4% 25% 21% -30.6%
≤30d 73 -27.0% -33.9% 42% 14% -28.3%
≤90d 175 -8.5% -17.2% 74% 10% -11.0%
all 485 -3.1% -12.3% 78% 4% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 4% -10.1%
10% -20.7% 2% -18.7%
15% -28.3% 2% -26.6%
20% -35.4% 1% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$17 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

187d coverage
Net worth$177
Realized−$969
Unrealized+$82
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses378 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions2
Markets (closed)485 / 487
History coverage187d
Avg bet$298
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 485 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 25¢ 66¢ $46 $122 +$76 (+164%)
ITF Tulsa: Ilyas Milad Fahim vs Jeffrey John Wolf Jeffrey John Wolf 89¢ 100¢ $49 $55 +$6 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Tulsa: Duncan Chan vs Braden Shick Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $97 −$10 -10%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 18 $10 −$1 -8%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $49 −$2 -4%
ITF Luque: Romina Ccuno vs Emily Zornada Jun 18 $49 −$1 -2%
ITF Blois: Julia Riera vs Ipek Oz Jun 18 $43 −$43 -100%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Quinn (+1.5) Jun 18 $49 +$60 +122%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 +$19 +92%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $50 −$3 -5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $50 −$3 -5%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $50 −$2 -3%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $50 +$11 +23%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 13 $50 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $20 +$16 +80%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $36 +$18 +50%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $51 −$8 -16%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $100 −$6 -6%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $50 +$5 +10%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $50 +$5 +11%
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 09 $152 −$7 -5%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $150 +$113 +75%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $152 −$152 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $149 −$139 -93%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $152 −$152 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $148 +$153 +103%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 08 $152 −$7 -4%
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary ele Jun 06 $4 −$1 -14%
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jun 06 $5 $0 -2%
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primar Jun 06 $6 $0 -1%
Next US strike on Syria on December 19? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 56-57°F on December Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 17? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from April 10 to Apr Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will AVS Futebol win on 2026-05-10? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Connacht win? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 17? Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Will MrBeast's video get between 62 and 64 million views on day 3? Jun 06 $20 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex (BO3) Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Marco Trungelliti vs Zachary Svajda Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Kimberly Birrell vs Jessica Pegula Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 25¢ $48 1h
ITF Tulsa: Duncan Chan vs Braden Shick BUY Duncan Chan 43¢ $49 3h
ITF Tulsa: Ilyas Milad Fahim vs Jeffrey John Wolf BUY Jeffrey John Wolf 89¢ $49 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 83¢ $72 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL BetBoom Team 15¢ $15 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 29¢ $9 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 74¢ $47 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 26¢ $17 3h
ITF Luque: Romina Ccuno vs Emily Zornada SELL Emily Zornada 38¢ $48 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $49 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $10 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $49 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $19 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $48 5h
ITF Luque: Romina Ccuno vs Emily Zornada BUY Emily Zornada 37¢ $49 5h
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Quinn (+1.5) BUY Quinn 44¢ $49 7h
ITF Blois: Julia Riera vs Ipek Oz BUY Julia Riera 10¢ $43 7h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $39 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 19h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 18¢ $1 21h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $4 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $4 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $4 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $4 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $4 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $4 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $4 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $4 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $4 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $4 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $177.14 · official $177.14 (match) · 1321 history records