trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -61.2% | -64.9% | 0% | 0% | -64.9% |
| ≤30d | 7 | -5.3% | -14.4% | 86% | 14% | -9.7% |
| ≤90d | 7 | -5.3% | -14.4% | 86% | 14% | -9.7% |
| all | 7 | -5.3% | -14.4% | 86% | 14% | -9.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.4% | 14% | -9.7% |
| 10% | -22.6% | 0% | -18.3% |
| 15% | -30.0% | 0% | -26.2% |
| 20% | -36.9% | 0% | -33.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Meta have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | $343 | $346 | +$4 (+1%) |
| Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before September 30, 2026? | Yes | 97¢ | 98¢ | $179 | $181 | +$1 (+1%) |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by July 31? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | $143 | $145 | +$1 (+1%) |
| Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | $117 | $120 | +$3 (+2%) |
| Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | $48 | $50 | +$2 (+5%) |
| Iran coup attempt by June 30? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | $49 | $50 | +$1 (+1%) |
| Will Meta have a #1 AI model by June 30? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | $41 | $42 | +$1 (+2%) |
| Will Z.ai have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | $8 | $8 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 16, 2026? | Yes | 2¢ | 3¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+60%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026? | Jun 21 | $94 | −$58 | -61% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 12, 2026? | Jun 15 | $673 | +$17 | +3% |
| Will claude-opus-4-7-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? | Jun 13 | $98 | +$2 | +2% |
| Will Claude 5 be released by June 19, 2026? | Jun 09 | $98 | +$11 | +11% |
| Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb | Jun 08 | $292 | +$8 | +3% |
| Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb | Jun 08 | $440 | +$14 | +3% |
| Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb | Jun 08 | $98 | +$2 | +2% |