Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T04:03:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x1230…d4c3 crypto 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (94 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$53 (-5%) realized −$67 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate39%20W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day94.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$37
sports 4% +$8
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (94 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -15.7% -23.7% 39% 35% -13.4%
≤30d 51 -15.7% -23.7% 39% 35% -13.4%
≤90d 51 -15.7% -23.7% 39% 35% -13.4%
all 51 -15.7% -23.7% 39% 35% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover94.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.7% 35% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -31.0% 29% -21.7%
15% -37.7% 27% -29.3%
20% -43.8% 24% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$16 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses20 / 31
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)51 / 55
History coverage1d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day94.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Up 22¢ 34¢ $25 $39 +$14 (+57%)
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In T1 87¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner T1 64¢ 58¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 29 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$54 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$8 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 29 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$19 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 29 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 29 $79 +$140 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$87 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 29 $31 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$8 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 29 $32 +$35 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 29 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 29 $31 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 28 $31 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$4 +80%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$35 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Canada to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 28 $20 +$13 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$25 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$5 -49%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 +6%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $5 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $133 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $45 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.19 · official $59.60 · 115 history records