Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:17:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x122d…c5c7 weather 1081 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 44d only
✗ bot/MM pace (77 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$328 (+1%) realized +$330 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%1039W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day76.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,252now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$91
7 days−$26
14 days−$1
30 days−$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$37
other 0% +$40
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (77 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 157 -0.7% -10.1% 98% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 660 -0.4% -9.9% 98% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 1053 -0.1% -9.6% 99% 0% -9.6%
all 1053 -0.1% -9.6% 99% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$39 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$1,252
Realized+$330
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1039 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions31
Markets (closed)1053 / 1081
History coverage45d ⚠
Avg bet$41
Trades / day76.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 1053 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on June 20? No 99¢ 99¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 21? No 99¢ 98¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 20? No 98¢ 99¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $46 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 20? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 32°C on June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 20? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 20? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on June 20? No 99¢ 98¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 20? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 20? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 20? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 21? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 20? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 21? No 98¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 20? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 20? No 98¢ 97¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 20? No 99¢ 98¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 20? No 96¢ 95¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on May 2? Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 5? Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on April 29? Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C or higher on June 20? Jun 19 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 19? Jun 19 $46 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 19? Jun 19 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 19 Jun 19 $42 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $45 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 19 $45 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 19? Jun 19 $46 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $45 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $46 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 19? Jun 18 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? Jun 18 $46 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or below on June 19? Jun 18 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $46 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 19? Jun 18 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? Jun 18 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 18 $45 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? Jun 17 $49 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? Jun 17 $45 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 18? Jun 17 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 65°F or below on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 17? Jun 17 $44 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $46 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 18? Jun 17 $46 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $23 16m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C or higher on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $45 30m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $46 57m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $45 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $45 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $45 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $46 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $26 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $45 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C or higher on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $45 5h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $11 5h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $34 5h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 19 SELL No 100¢ $43 5h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $39 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $16 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $30 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $14 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $30 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $45 7h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 32°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $45 7h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $6 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $8 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $11 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $11 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $8 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,251.54 · official $1,252.17 (match) · 3500 history records