Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:58:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

12
0x122d…95fe
other · 39 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$104 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$125 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$179
Realized+$125
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses6 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)11%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)35 / 39
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1,418
Trades / day1787.2
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 6 History 35 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$125
7 days+$125
14 days+$125
30 days+$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 98¢ $30 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 98¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11,810 −$7 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 14 $7,659 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5,481 −$3 -0%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 14 $10,337 −$6 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $1,216 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 14 $1,517 +$29 +2%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2,104 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 14 $173 +$29 +16%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 14 $88 +$29 +32%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $833 +$28 +3%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $30 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,016 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $46 +$30 +64%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 13 $919 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $124 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $31 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $70 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $164 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 13 $1,217 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 13 $2,589 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $30 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $88 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $86 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $281 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Jun 12 $31 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $582 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $335 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $29 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $1,436 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $469 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $667 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $30 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 42% +$75
world 22% $0
politics 21% +$23
economics 7% +$28
tech 6% −$1
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 98¢ $29 3m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $29 3m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 98¢ $29 5m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $31 6m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $29 14m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 100¢ $31 15m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 100¢ $31 15m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $3 17m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $3 17m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $30 18m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $30 18m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $29 25m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $29 25m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 98¢ $31 33m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 98¢ $29 35m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $17 35m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $12 35m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 100¢ $31 41m
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 45m
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 45m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 100¢ $31 48m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 98¢ $31 58m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 98¢ $29 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $29 1h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 1h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 98¢ $29 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $29 1h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 99¢ $150 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 98¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +3.4% -6.5% 17% 9% -9.3%
≤30d 35 +3.4% -6.5% 17% 9% -9.3%
≤90d 35 +3.4% -6.5% 17% 9% -9.3%
all 35 +3.4% -6.5% 17% 9% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1787.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.5% 9% -9.3%
10% -15.4% 6% -18.0%
15% ← realistic here -23.6% 3% -25.9%
20% -31.1% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $179.41 · official $179.41 (match) · 3500 history records