Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:18:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
12 0x122d…183c politics 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 62d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$899 (-43%) realized −$826 · open −$73
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$174per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$289now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$94
7 days−$46
14 days−$46
30 days−$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 70% −$739
other 28% −$152
tech 2% +$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-39.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.0% -10.4% 33% 33% -27.7%
≤30d 4 -20.8% -28.4% 25% 25% -44.8%
≤90d 6 -33.2% -39.5% 17% 17% -55.3%
all 6 -33.2% -39.5% 17% 17% -55.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.5% 17% -55.3%
10% -45.3% 17% -59.6%
15% -50.6% 17% -63.5%
20% -55.5% 17% -67.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$164 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$289
Realized−$826
Unrealized−$73
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Open positions6
Markets (closed)6 / 12
History coverage62d
Avg bet$174
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $345 $288 −$58 (-17%)
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $16 $1 −$15 (-93%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 23¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-94%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 15¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $89 −$89 -99%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $94 −$6 -6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $47 +$48 +103%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 20 $105 −$84 -80%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of t Apr 17 $532 −$516 -97%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of Apr 16 $655 −$123 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $356 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $89 10h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $89 10h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $94 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 100¢ $95 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 48¢ $47 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $24 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $23 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $24 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $25 6d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No $8 6d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $40 6d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 15¢ $97 7d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 24¢ $30 7d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 15¢ $3 7d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 85¢ $32 7d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 55¢ $21 8d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $21 26d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes $105 55d
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes $16 58d
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of t SELL Yes $16 59d
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of t BUY Yes $532 60d
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of SELL Yes 28¢ $533 60d
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of BUY Yes 35¢ $190 61d
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of BUY Yes 28¢ $165 62d
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of BUY Yes 38¢ $300 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $289.18 · official $289.04 (match) · 33 history records