Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:09:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

12
0x122c…821f
world · 83 markets active 6h ago
0.0score
+$290,372 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$361,978 · open −$70,947
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$423,510
Realized+$361,978
Unrealized−$70,947
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses45 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Open positions25
Markets (closed)60 / 83
History coverage65d
Avg bet$81,203
Trades / day51.1
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 25 History 60 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$142
7 days+$1,798
14 days+$9,097
30 days+$10,354
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 98¢ 87¢ $352,976 $313,952 −$39,024 (-11%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 85¢ $32,679 $55,457 +$22,777 (+70%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 99¢ 95¢ $12,321 $11,875 −$446 (-4%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 15¢ $32,679 $9,902 −$22,777 (-70%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 84¢ 60¢ $11,776 $8,482 −$3,295 (-28%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 88¢ 74¢ $9,916 $8,283 −$1,633 (-16%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 50¢ 82¢ $2,500 $4,125 +$1,625 (+65%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No 49¢ 52¢ $3,396 $3,555 +$159 (+5%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? No 88¢ 94¢ $1,789 $1,907 +$118 (+7%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 89¢ 76¢ $1,978 $1,689 −$289 (-15%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 82¢ 64¢ $1,372 $1,057 −$315 (-23%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 89¢ 89¢ $741 $742 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 50¢ 18¢ $1,290 $451 −$838 (-65%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.D. Vance by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $351 $373 +$22 (+6%)
Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam? Yes 73¢ 76¢ $270 $281 +$11 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 60¢ 55¢ $266 $244 −$22 (-8%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $217 $208 −$8 (-4%)
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? Yes 62¢ 7¢ $1,712 $192 −$1,520 (-89%)
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Yes 61¢ 8¢ $962 $132 −$830 (-86%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? No 67¢ 53¢ $162 $127 −$35 (-21%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? Yes 88¢ 56¢ $180 $115 −$65 (-36%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $104 $110 +$6 (+6%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $103 $105 +$2 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $38 $38 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $999 +$52 +5%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $2,129 +$90 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $250,699 +$818 +0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $1,996 +$4 +0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $2,628 +$3 +0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $1,153 +$20 +2%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $4,580 +$144 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $461,578 +$668 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 04 $76 −$2 -3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $464,127 +$4,837 +1%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $1,880 −$1,880 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 03 $5,604 +$179 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $36,270 +$156 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $63,060 +$69 +0%
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 31? Jun 01 $10,057 +$11 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $17,132 +$251 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $10,107 +$11 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $496,594 +$2,637 +0%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $29,974 +$549 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $1,913 +$233 +12%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $51,345 +$151 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 30 $14,338 +$31 +0%
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele May 29 $821 +$67 +8%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $2,751 +$11 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 28 $31,972 +$103 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 27 $31 −$22 -71%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $5,261 +$439 +8%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $24,968 +$532 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $1,056 −$43 -4%
Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30? May 24 $48 +$139 +292%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 21 $95 +$51 +54%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 16 $70 +$44 +63%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 07 $258 −$9 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 07 $20,354 −$2,305 -11%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 07 $64 −$20 -31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 07 $19,875 −$1,820 -9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 01 $8,244 +$151 +2%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $492,244 +$1,425 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 29 $452,062 +$2,548 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 27 $1,961 −$886 -45%
Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by April Apr 24 $4 +$1 +14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 24 $15,385 +$1,901 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 23 $6,175 +$292 +5%
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by April 22? Apr 22 $2,050 +$18 +1%
Will Trump post "POTUS" this week on Truth Social? Apr 21 $59 +$32 +54%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $78 +$37 +48%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 21 $14,187 −$2,639 -19%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $24,184 −$3,776 -16%
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple? Apr 20 $13,797 +$938 +7%
Will Hezbollah disarm by April 30? Apr 16 $1,896 +$22 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 48% −$22,200
world 44% +$313,951
crypto 7% +$4,804
other 1% −$876
finance 0% −$3,819
tech 0% −$830
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 6h
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 9h
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 15h
Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath SELL Yes 82¢ $2 17h
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $28 18h
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 18h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $238 20h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $3 21h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $3 21h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $20 23h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $53 23h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $85 23h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 95¢ $249 25h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 95¢ $248 25h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 95¢ $197 27h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 95¢ $263 27h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 94¢ $94 27h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY No 51¢ $101 27h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY No 51¢ $94 28h
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 28h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $2,219 28h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY No 51¢ $4 29h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY No 51¢ $5 29h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY No 53¢ $507 36h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY No 53¢ $9 39h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY No 53¢ $6 39h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY No 53¢ $6 40h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $448 40h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $161 40h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $510 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)+1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.9% -7.8% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 32 +9.0% -1.4% 88% 12% -9.1%
≤90d 60 +12.6% +1.9% 75% 15% +0.8%
all 60 +12.6% +1.9% 75% 15% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover51.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.9% 15% +0.8%
10% -7.9% 10% -8.9%
15% ← realistic here -16.8% 10% -17.7%
20% -24.9% 8% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $423,510.49 · official $423,510.49 (match) · 3500 history records