Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:25:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x122c…fbed other 100 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (714 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7,801 (+4%) realized +$6,573 · open +$1,228
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate50%39W / 39L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$2,132per market
Trades / day713.7pace
Fees−$1,072est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$14,234now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% +$5,832
other 37% −$283
world 14% +$48
finance 3% −$124
tech 2% −$56
politics 2% +$498
weather 1% +$65
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (714 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -10.0% -18.6% 50% 15% -7.1%
≤30d 78 -10.0% -18.6% 50% 15% -7.1%
≤90d 78 -10.0% -18.6% 50% 15% -7.1%
all 78 -10.0% -18.6% 50% 15% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover713.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.6% 15% -7.1%
10% -26.4% 6% -16.0%
15% ← realistic here -33.5% 4% -24.1%
20% -40.0% 1% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$3,817) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$211 vs −$90 · ×2.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.36 per $1 lost it wins $2.36
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$14,234
Realized+$6,573
Unrealized+$1,228
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses39 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$1,072
Open positions22
Markets (closed)78 / 100
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2,132
Trades / day713.7
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $3,800 $3,780 −$20 (-1%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 43¢ 100¢ $845 $1,974 +$1,129 (+134%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes 74¢ 79¢ $1,465 $1,562 +$97 (+7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 43¢ 48¢ $1,288 $1,422 +$134 (+10%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $1,282 $1,378 +$96 (+7%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? Yes 69¢ 70¢ $1,141 $1,159 +$19 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 27¢ 29¢ $1,060 $1,155 +$94 (+9%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? Yes 45¢ 38¢ $545 $469 −$76 (-14%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $188 $272 +$84 (+45%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $363 $236 −$126 (-35%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? No 99¢ 98¢ $197 $197 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 24? No 92¢ 100¢ $164 $178 +$13 (+8%)
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 20¢ 37¢ $72 $135 +$63 (+87%)
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $121 $117 −$3 (-3%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? No 73¢ 78¢ $107 $114 +$6 (+6%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026? No 34¢ 30¢ $34 $30 −$4 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24? No 84¢ 100¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+19%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? No 88¢ 90¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $6 $11 +$4 (+66%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+14%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? No 14¢ 21¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+50%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 0¢ $105 $0 −$105 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 24? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $11,152 +$238 +2%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $995 +$28 +3%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $10,612 +$1,091 +10%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $32 −$16 -49%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $618 −$31 -5%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 24 $150 −$64 -42%
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $5,153 −$57 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $419 −$4 -1%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $14,194 +$327 +2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $76 −$11 -14%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $5,591 +$694 +12%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $65 −$17 -26%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 24 $8 −$6 -69%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3,554 +$360 +10%
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 24 $17 +$1 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 24 $498 +$26 +5%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 24 $1,840 +$232 +13%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 24? Jun 24 $23 −$3 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $373 +$61 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $27 −$5 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 24? Jun 24 $15 −$4 -29%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? Jun 24 $3,912 −$11 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -95%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen Jun 24 $333 +$2 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Jun 24 $3,925 −$9 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24? Jun 24 $72 +$6 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? Jun 24 $2 −$1 -44%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $2,599 −$7 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $19 −$2 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $121 −$4 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? Jun 24 $4 −$3 -64%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 24? Jun 24 $90 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 24? Jun 24 $57 +$8 +15%
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 24 $6 +$2 +26%
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 24 $783 +$335 +43%
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 24 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 24 $259 +$41 +16%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $10,049 +$1,187 +12%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $13,998 −$558 -4%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $2,895 +$8 +0%
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 24 $23 +$1 +3%
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 24 $2,008 +$19 +1%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 24 $56 +$39 +69%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $6,631 −$212 -3%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $3,549 −$551 -16%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5,471 −$2 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Jun 24 $207 −$13 -6%
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 24 $0 $0 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL No 70¢ $359 0m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 4m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 5m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 90¢ $696 5m
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY No 86¢ $446 7m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 92¢ $716 7m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $721 15m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $340 16m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $6 17m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 31m
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? SELL No 98¢ $768 32m
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? SELL No 98¢ $98 32m
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? SELL No 98¢ $909 32m
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? SELL No 98¢ $491 32m
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? SELL No 98¢ $11 32m
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 33m
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 33m
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? SELL No 98¢ $11 33m
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? SELL No 97¢ $108 33m
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? SELL No 98¢ $11 33m
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? SELL No 98¢ $11 33m
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? SELL No 97¢ $11 33m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 88¢ $71 34m
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL No 76¢ $3,278 34m
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? SELL No 98¢ $465 34m
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 34m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 89¢ $72 34m
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 34m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 34m
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? SELL No 98¢ $141 35m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,234.43 · official $14,215.53 (match) · 1457 history records