Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:03:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
12 0x122c…ab0a sports 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 680d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate39%11W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$1
sports 30% −$2
politics 27% −$13
culture 5% −$3
economics 1% $0
world 0% −$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 28 -6.4% -15.3% 39% 18% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 18% -10.0%
10% -23.4% 7% -18.6%
15% -30.8% 4% -26.5%
20% -37.6% 4% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

680d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses11 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage680d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $670 −$1 -0%
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 17 $230 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $110 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $385 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $164 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 03 $200 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $372 −$1 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 03 $200 $0 -0%
Will Donovan Mitchell win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 04 $660 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Mar 04 $180 $0 -0%
Chinese or Russian athlete kicked out of 2026 Winter Games for doping? Mar 04 $1 $0 +12%
US downs another Iranian drone by February 28? Feb 07 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: FRK vs Team WE (BO3) Jan 24 $2 $0 +9%
Katie Porter drops out of the CA Gov race by Dec 31? Jan 24 $2 $0 +15%
Will Russia capture any territory in Lyman by December 15? Jan 24 $2 −$1 -70%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 12+ times during S Nov 28 $1 +$1 +72%
Euro Basket: Great Britain vs Lithuania Oct 17 $3 $0 +3%
Ukraine hits Moscow by July 31? Aug 27 $2 $0 +9%
Will 'Superman' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Jul 18 $10 $0 +3%
Elon Musk out as Senior Advisor to Trump in May? May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Anora" win Best Film Editing at the 2025 Oscars? May 21 $4 −$3 -66%
OpenAI settlement with NYT by end of 2024? Jan 15 $2 $0 +11%
Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross most in 2024? Nov 28 $316 $0 -0%
US GDP declines in Q3 2024? Nov 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Manchester City win the UEFA Champions League? Oct 18 $13 $0 -1%
Nasrallah remains leader of Hezbollah through August? Oct 11 $1 $0 +1%
Real Madrid vs. Atalanta: UEFA Super Cup Aug 28 $1 $0 +28%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Aug 14 $572 −$11 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $336 1h
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $230 1h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $110 1h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $335 27h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $333 27h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $335 27h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $110 27h
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $230 27h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $192 51d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $82 51d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $192 53d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $193 53d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $193 53d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $82 53d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $82 53d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $82 53d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $199 75d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $187 75d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $100 75d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $186 77d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $185 77d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $186 77d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $200 77d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $100 77d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $100 77d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $100 77d
Will Donovan Mitchell win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 100¢ $330 105d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $180 105d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $180 105d
Will Donovan Mitchell win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 100¢ $330 105d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 91 history records