Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:20:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x122b…ac59 sports 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (500 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,839 (+1%) realized +$1,858 · open −$19
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate40%6W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8,163per market
Trades / day500.0pace
Fees−$3,589est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$6,178
other 6% +$3,815
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (500 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +3.1% -6.7% 40% 33% -9.4%
≤30d 15 +3.1% -6.7% 40% 33% -9.4%
≤90d 15 +3.1% -6.7% 40% 33% -9.4%
all 15 +3.1% -6.7% 40% 33% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover500.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.7% 33% -9.4%
10% -15.6% 27% -18.1%
15% ← realistic here -23.8% 20% -26.0%
20% -31.3% 20% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
15.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,978 vs −$1,579 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$1,858
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Est. fees paid−$3,589
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8,163
Trades / day500.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Paraguay leading at halftime? No $20 $1 −$19 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $13,506 −$2,131 -16%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $6,287 +$3,470 +55%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $35,234 −$3,324 -9%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $32,688 −$3,351 -10%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $230 +$717 +312%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $11,991 +$4,222 +35%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $446 −$429 -96%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $8,215 −$1,494 -18%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $7,299 −$1,805 -25%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $48 −$46 -97%
United States to win the second half? Jun 19 $1,869 +$364 +20%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $6 $0 +3%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $8,311 −$1,561 -19%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1,002 −$72 -7%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $3,456 +$3,098 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Paraguay leading at halftime? BUY No $21 25m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 92¢ $13 26m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 91¢ $597 27m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 92¢ $20 27m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 92¢ $16 27m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 92¢ $14 27m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 92¢ $354 27m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 90¢ $1,004 28m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 38¢ $745 28m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 38¢ $1,079 31m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 38¢ $8 31m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 38¢ $5 31m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 38¢ $5 31m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 38¢ $2,347 31m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 38¢ $5 31m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 35¢ $100 31m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 35¢ $339 31m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 35¢ $20 31m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 35¢ $46 31m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 35¢ $5 31m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 35¢ $339 31m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 31m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 35¢ $5 31m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 31m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 31m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 31m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 35¢ $100 31m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 31m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 31m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 35¢ $5 31m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.01 · official $1.01 (match) · 502 history records