Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:54:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
12 0x1229…df38 other 139 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 35d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (96 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$7,548 (+7%) realized +$5,441 · open +$2,107
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate48%29W / 32L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$819per market
Trades / day96.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$57,157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 35d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% +$6,887
other 27% +$338
finance 21% +$1,755
world 5% +$634
economics 1% −$161
sports 1% +$84
tech 1% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (96 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +112.6% +92.4% 73% 73% +33.3%
≤30d 51 +27.7% +15.6% 49% 33% +8.4%
≤90d 61 +22.3% +10.7% 48% 31% +7.4%
all 61 +22.3% +10.7% 48% 31% +7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover96.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.7% 31% +7.4%
10% +0.1% 21% -2.8%
15% ← realistic here -9.6% 20% -12.2%
20% -18.5% 8% -20.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$752) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late +30% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
15.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$319 vs −$59 · ×5.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.91 per $1 lost it wins $4.91
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$57,157
Realized+$5,441
Unrealized+$2,107
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses29 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions87
Markets (closed)61 / 139
History coverage35d ⚠
Avg bet$819
Trades / day96.4
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 87 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes 78¢ 88¢ $4,879 $5,504 +$625 (+13%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June? No 96¢ 100¢ $5,246 $5,457 +$211 (+4%)
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? Yes 85¢ 92¢ $4,154 $4,487 +$332 (+8%)
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $3,197 $3,284 +$88 (+3%)
Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $2,873 $2,870 −$4 (-0%)
Will UBS fail by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $2,759 $2,814 +$55 (+2%)
Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? No 97¢ 97¢ $2,405 $2,417 +$12 (+0%)
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? Yes 81¢ 90¢ $2,098 $2,327 +$229 (+11%)
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? No 36¢ 44¢ $1,802 $2,200 +$398 (+22%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,878 $1,884 +$7 (+0%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December? No 91¢ 94¢ $1,829 $1,879 +$50 (+3%)
Will Scotiabank fail by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $1,751 $1,792 +$41 (+2%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 76¢ 77¢ $1,519 $1,547 +$28 (+2%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%? No 86¢ 96¢ $1,330 $1,471 +$141 (+11%)
Will Felipe Curi win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? No 88¢ 90¢ $1,258 $1,279 +$21 (+2%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June? No 98¢ 98¢ $1,183 $1,194 +$10 (+1%)
Will Rodrigo Pacheco win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? No 89¢ 94¢ $1,103 $1,156 +$53 (+5%)
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $1,120 $1,036 −$84 (-8%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 85¢ 97¢ $744 $849 +$105 (+14%)
Will Santander fail by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $724 $731 +$7 (+1%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June? No 63¢ 95¢ $479 $722 +$243 (+51%)
Will BNP Paribas fail by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $635 $648 +$13 (+2%)
Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $610 $620 +$10 (+2%)
Will Jair Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? No 96¢ 97¢ $552 $557 +$5 (+1%)
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 80¢ $556 $479 −$76 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will HSBC fail by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $316 +$706 +223%
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 20 Jun 24 $94 +$15 +15%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 24 $1,000 −$80 -8%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 24 $116 −$69 -60%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazili Jun 23 $75 +$11 +15%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June? Jun 23 $752 +$291 +39%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December? Jun 23 $86 +$771 +892%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $53 +$42 +78%
Will Kim Kataguiri win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? Jun 22 $43 +$7 +16%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 22 $4,656 +$1,766 +38%
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? Jun 19 $91 −$8 -9%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 18 $6,630 −$70 -1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 18 $187 −$41 -22%
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 18 $878 +$5 +1%
Will Warsh say "Groupthink" or "Group Think" during June Press Confere Jun 17 $105 +$45 +43%
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 50+ times during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazili Jun 15 $39 −$2 -4%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $472 −$174 -37%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 13 $180 −$62 -34%
Will Tereza Cristina finish in second place in the first round of the Jun 13 $2 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $560 −$49 -9%
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 11 $122 −$25 -20%
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? Jun 11 $73 −$29 -39%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $172 −$7 -4%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $88 −$6 -6%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 10 $1,260 +$7 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $77-$84 in June? Jun 09 $7 $0 -2%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $2,363 +$982 +42%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $99 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? Jun 09 $88 −$17 -19%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $2,700 −$513 -19%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 08 $36 −$16 -44%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $1,020 −$454 -44%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? Jun 06 $992 +$116 +12%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December? Jun 05 $31 +$119 +381%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Jun 05 $65 −$9 -14%
Will JPMorgan Chase fail by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 02 $4,173 +$1,977 +47%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,600 (HIGH) in December? Jun 01 $136 +$4 +3%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,600 (HIGH) in June? Jun 01 $1,013 +$98 +10%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in June? May 31 $32 +$15 +46%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 30 $1,465 +$122 +8%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in May? May 29 $646 +$13 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? May 29 $91 +$1 +1%
Will Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? May 28 $32 −$1 -3%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May? May 27 $905 −$95 -10%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 26? May 27 $77 +$32 +41%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 26? May 27 $155 +$29 +19%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 26 $2,867 +$2,045 +71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $19 0m
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $7 8m
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $80 8m
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $2 13m
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 BUY No 41¢ $41 16m
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $18 27m
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $8 32m
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $12 35m
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in second place in the first round of the 2 BUY Yes $0 51m
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $2 1h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b BUY Yes 41¢ $19 1h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b BUY Yes 41¢ $154 1h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b BUY Yes 41¢ $16 1h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b BUY Yes 41¢ $41 1h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b BUY Yes 41¢ $19 1h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b BUY Yes 40¢ $21 1h
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rat BUY No 41¢ $21 1h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $4 1h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $3 1h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runof BUY Yes 86¢ $0 1h
Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? BUY Yes 84¢ $0 1h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of t BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Lloyds fail by end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $25 2h
Will Lloyds fail by end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $61 2h
Will another person win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presiden BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 3h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of t BUY Yes $0 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57,156.88 · official $57,156.96 (match) · 3500 history records